Sodium-ion battery industrialization is approaching a historic turning point.
On May 30th, at the "2026 Equipment Power Forum," Wu Kai, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and Chief Scientist at
Wu Kai elaborated on the strategic value of sodium batteries at the forum. He pointed out that compared to lithium-ion batteries, the core advantages of sodium batteries lie in abundant resources and low cost. In fact, sodium is the sixth most abundant element in the Earth's crust, with widespread distribution. This fundamentally mitigates the supply chain risks associated with the highly concentrated geographical distribution of lithium resources (75% concentrated in the Americas). This structural advantage is particularly crucial in the current macroeconomic environment.
On the cost front, the competitive edge of sodium batteries is rapidly materializing. According to Dongguan Securities research, driven by strong downstream demand, the price of lithium carbonate has been rising continuously since the second half of 2025, which constitutes a core driver for accelerating the industrialization of sodium batteries.
Dongguan Securities estimates that the cost of sodium batteries is expected to fall below 0.40 yuan/Wh in 2026, approaching the current price level of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells. As technological iteration and economies of scale further materialize, its cost may drop below 0.3 yuan/Wh in the future, at which point its cost-performance advantage will become fully prominent.
This outlook has been endorsed by substantial investment from industry leaders. Data shows that by 2025, CATL had cumulatively invested nearly 10 billion yuan in sodium battery research and development. CATL Chairman Robin Zeng previously predicted that sodium-ion batteries could replace 30% to 40% of the existing battery market share in the future.
As the leader takes the initiative, the entire supply chain is responding swiftly. Soochow Securities analysis suggests that the technological pathway for sodium batteries has converged and matured. Cathode materials are primarily based on layered oxides and polyanion compounds for power and energy storage applications, respectively, while hard carbon is mainstream for anode materials.
In fact, industrial deployment is already flourishing across multiple fronts. Besides CATL, other lithium battery giants like BYD, EVE Energy, Gotion High-tech, and Sunwoda have also entered the sodium battery arena. Among them, EVE Energy's sodium battery headquarters project commenced construction in December 2025, with a planned capacity of 2GWh. On the application side, Changan Automobile, in collaboration with CATL, plans to launch the world's first mass-produced sodium battery passenger car in mid-2026.
The capital market reaction has been equally enthusiastic. According to statistics, among A-share sodium battery concept stocks, 24 companies reported positive and year-on-year growth in 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders. Seven concept stocks, including Minmetals New Energy, Shanshan Co., Ltd., and Do-Fluoride New Materials, turned losses into profits. Since the beginning of 2026, the Sodium Battery Concept Index has risen by 17.63%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index during the same period. Multiple constituent stocks, such as Sacred Sun Power Sources, Dynanonic, and Veken Technology, have seen gains exceeding 50%.
Looking ahead, the application blueprint for sodium batteries is clear and expansive. China Galaxy Securities points out that power, energy storage, and two-wheeled vehicles will become its three core volume growth areas. In the power sector, sodium batteries, leveraging their economic efficiency and excellent low-temperature performance, are expected to find opportunities in the mid-to-low-end passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle markets. In energy storage, characteristics like high safety, wide operating temperature range, and high discharge power make them strong competitors for large-scale energy storage power stations. In the two-wheeled vehicle sector, sodium batteries are poised to replace a significant portion of the massive lead-acid battery market based on their comprehensive comparative advantages.
China Galaxy Securities provides highly optimistic forecast data: global sodium-ion battery shipments are expected to reach 25, 92, and 221 GWh in 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 188%, 263%, and 140%. By 2030, shipments are projected to exceed 600 GWh.
Soochow Securities believes that 2026 is expected to mark the first year of large-scale application for sodium batteries, with promising prospects for industrial scale expansion. Companies that have made forward-looking investments in core segments of the sodium battery supply chain are likely to be the first to benefit from the industry's growth.
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