Powell says inflation is still too high and the committee is fully committed to bringing inflation back to the 2% target.
“The committee is proceeding carefully,” Powell says, an indication there is no near-term adjustment in rates expected.
The labor market remains tight but supply and demand are coming into a better balance, Powell says.
Powell describes policy as being “well into restrictive territory.”
That’s a change from the Nov. 1 press conference, when he merely called policy restrictive.
Powell says it will take some time for inflation to return to the 2% goal.
While interest rates are at or near the peak of the cycle, Powell says the committee has been surprised before and will do more if needed to bring inflation down.
The FOMC doesn’t want to take further hikes off the table, Powell says.
On rate cuts, that begins to come into view, and is now a topic of discussion, Powell says.
“There is little basis for thinking the economy is in a recession now,” Powell says. “It is far too early to declare victory.”
“We don’t think about political events.... We just can’t do that,” Powell says, adding that the FOMC is just focused on what’s best of the economy.
A rate hike is not the base case anymore as it was 60 or 90 days ago, Powell says.
“I welcome the progress. It is really good to see the progress we are making” on inflation, Powell says. “We need to see more.”
“The era of a frantic labor shortage is behind us”, Powell says. “Wages have been gradually cooling off but are a bit above the level consistent with 2% inflation.”
“People are still living with high prices” and people don’t like that, Powell says. “We do see those public opinion surveys.”
“Fed “very much focused” on the risk it keeps rates too high for too long.” Powell says, “Rate cuts could be a sign of normalization, rather than a weakening economy.”
Powell says the committee is seeing progress in core inflation and some FOMC participants updated their inflation forecasts following the last two days of data.
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