CGS has released a research report stating that new consumption, represented by emerging product categories, will remain one of the core investment themes in the food and beverage sector in 2025. The firm believes this trend will persist through 2026 and beyond, though rotations may occur within subcategories. Among these, health-focused foods are identified as a key investment opportunity.
CGS highlights that the health food segment features a diverse and long-tail SKU structure, resembling the investment logic of the snack industry, with the focus on selecting listed companies strategically positioned in high-potential categories. Key insights include:
**Macro Perspective: Demand and Channel Transformation Revitalize the 600B Health Food Market** The health food market, encompassing natural and nutritional products, currently totals approximately 600 billion yuan. Since 2025, shifts in demand and distribution channels have emerged: 1) **Demand-side**: Consumer demographics are expanding from seniors to younger generations, while usage scenarios extend beyond disease prevention to include stress relief, weight management, and other personalized needs. Product formats have also evolved from traditional supplements to gummies and other innovative forms. 2) **Channel-side**: The rise of interest-driven e-commerce, cross-border platforms, and membership-based supermarkets has addressed trust deficits and low category awareness, fueling structural growth in health foods. Oats, walnuts, sports nutrition, and gut health products have shown rapid growth, driving strong performance among related listed firms.
**Category Analysis: The "Function-Scenario-Price" Triad** CGS emphasizes that health foods with clear functional benefits, versatile usage scenarios, and accessible pricing are likely to produce breakout products. Recommended categories include: - **Oats** (10B yuan market): Low-GI, affordable, and adaptable to breakfast, snacks, and fitness needs. - **Corn** (200B yuan market): Low-GI, widely accepted, and suitable for both staple and snack applications. - **Walnuts** (80B yuan market): Heart- and brain-healthy, cost-effective among tree nuts, and expanding into wellness scenarios. - **Black Sesame** (1 yuan/serving): Promotes hair health, rich flavor, and extends to baking and snacks. - **Sports Nutrition** (6B yuan market): Poised for growth with rising fitness participation. - **Gut Health** (4B yuan online, 75% probiotics): Rapidly expanding segment.
**Key Companies: High-Growth Potential** 1) **Ximi Food**: Oat industry leader with 18% revenue CAGR (3Y), driven by premiumization and e-commerce expansion. 2) **October Riceland**: Staple-food innovator with 17% revenue CAGR, benefiting from corn-based health products. 3) **Wugu Mill**: Walnut-sesame leader rebounding with 9% revenue CAGR and 29% profit CAGR via channel optimization. 4) **Health & Happiness**: Top CDMO player with 21% revenue CAGR, leveraging global and new consumption trends. 5) **Junyao Health**: Probiotics pioneer with 17% revenue CAGR across B2B and B2C segments.
**Risks**: Slower channel/category growth, intensified competition, and food safety issues.
Comments