“Sold ChangXin shares right at market open. Thank you, China, for the $19,900 gift.” Just moments ago, internet influencer “FengGe” posted this update on social media, along with a screenshot of the transaction slip.
Earlier this morning, on July 27, ChangXin Technology, a leading domestic memory chip maker, made a dramatic debut on the STAR Market. Its opening price of 49.50 yuan per share soared 471.59% above the IPO price of 8.66 yuan, pushing its total market capitalization past 3.31 trillion yuan and making it the largest stock on the A-share market by value.
After the opening auction results were released, ChangXin Technology’s opening price of 49.50 yuan far exceeded most neutral market expectations. Based on a static calculation at the opening price, the paper profit for one lot of 500 shares reached 20,400 yuan.
The reason FengGe’s “quick profit-taking” has drawn widespread attention, beyond his influencer status, is that he had been treating the entire IPO process as a serialized online drama. As early as July 18, FengGe had posted a screenshot of his winning lottery allocation on his personal social media platform. At the time, he revealed he had successfully secured one lot of ChangXin Technology shares, optimistically stating, “I feel like it’s no problem to see a tenfold increase at the opening. I can recover 40,000-50,000 yuan. It feels great.”
Back then, the comments section was filled not only with exclamations of “Lucky King,” but also with many users analyzing that this stock had a special quality and was a chip sector leader, meaning getting an allocation was like picking up free money. This early buzz ignited online discussions about the ChangXin Technology IPO.
Before the listing, valuation differences among institutions had already emerged, setting the stage for today’s opening performance. Huaxi Securities believed that the listing of ChangXin Technology would “completely rewrite the valuation logic of the A-share semiconductor (core) sector, fill the gap in the A-share DRAM manufacturing target, and end the valuation imbalance in the memory sector where there is ‘only design, no manufacturing leader’.” Under a neutral scenario, the company’s stable market value after listing was estimated at 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan, and under an optimistic scenario, 4 trillion yuan. Essence Securities set out four valuation scenarios: conservative, neutral, optimistic, and super-optimistic, with corresponding market capitalizations of 1 trillion yuan, 1.5 trillion yuan, 2.3 trillion yuan, and 4.25 trillion yuan, respectively. Previously, the market had generally referenced neutral valuations, with most analyses predicting first-day profits per lot concentrated in the range of 4,000 to 8,000 yuan. The actual gain of nearly 20,000 yuan at the opening today has already touched the optimistic range of institutional expectations, driven by the high prosperity of the AI memory track and the resonance of capital chasing core assets for domestic substitution.
With ChangXin Technology reaching the top of the market cap rankings, its driving effect on the semiconductor (core) industry chain, as well as the market’s widespread concern about the IPO’s “sucking effect,” have also become core discussion points in today’s market. From the perspective of the industry chain’s radiation range, more than 30 A-share companies are linked to ChangXin Technology in upstream sectors like electronic chemicals, photoresists, silicon wafers, and electronic specialty gases (core), midstream semiconductor equipment, and downstream packaging, testing, modules, and terminals. The incremental orders from subsequent capacity expansion are expected to gradually transmit to the entire industry chain. As for the pressure of capital diversion, industry views generally suggest there is no need for excessive panic. Referring to the historical performance of previous billion-yuan IPOs like SMIC, the siphoning effect typically peaks on the first day of listing and then decays rapidly within the following two weeks, representing more of a short-term emotional disturbance than a long-term capital pressure.
For the majority of investors who received allocations, FengGe’s “sell at the open” strategy is a typical conservative approach, focused on locking in profits and securing the definitive price difference between the primary and secondary markets. Some investors, however, choose to hold on, betting on the emotional premium during the first five days without price limits. But it is crucial to recognize that the memory storage industry has a strong cyclical nature. The company’s current performance boom is largely benefiting from AI-driven DRAM demand growth and price increases. The company also explicitly warned in its prospectus that major global DRAM manufacturers are currently accelerating capacity expansion. If future AI demand for DRAM falls short of expectations, combined with the gradual release of new capacity, the industry could return to a supply glut, leading to a decline in performance. New stock prices are highly volatile in the early stages of listing, and the probability of valuation deviating from the reasonable range is high. Investors still need to view the short-term market rationally and be wary of the dual risks of a cyclical reversal and valuation correction.
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