On August 13, the US July CPI data aligned with market expectations, with a slight cooling in inflation further reducing the probability of a Fed rate hike in September. However, the data lacked a significant positive surprise, making it difficult to sustain a unilateral upward move in gold prices. Gold surged to test the 4450 USD stage high before encountering a wave of concentrated profit-taking from long positions, leading to a rapid decline and closing with a long upper shadow Candlestick pattern.
Today, the market is closely watching the US PPI producer price index and initial jobless claims data, serving as a secondary verification of inflation figures. The medium-to-long-term support logic remains unchanged: global central banks continue to increase gold holdings to hedge reserve risks, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties limit the scope for deep corrections. Meanwhile, Fed officials' speeches and fluctuations in US Treasury yields continue to disrupt short-term rhythms.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, gold has broken above the previous range and continues to rise, with the moving average system maintaining a bullish alignment, and the medium-term upward trend structure remains intact. The sustained rally has pushed the RSI into overbought territory for an extended period. The pullback after testing the 4450 USD high yesterday, with a Long Upper Shadow Candlestick, confirms the temporary exhaustion of bullish momentum. The price is currently under pressure below the MA5 moving average of 4390, with the short-term moving average shifting from support to resistance. The MACD is above the zero line, but the red bars are contracting, and the fast and slow lines are converging. Although a bearish crossover has not yet formed, the need for indicator correction is increasing. The current market is characterized as a high-level divergence adjustment within an uptrend, not a direct trend reversal. The 4300 USD level remains the core trend watershed for bulls. As long as the price does not effectively break below the key moving averages and trend support, the larger bullish structure remains intact.
On the 4-hour chart, gold tested the strong resistance zone of 4440-4450 USD before pulling back, falling below the MA20 moving average of 4380. While the price made a new phase high, the MACD indicator shows a declining high, confirming a bearish divergence pattern, marking the official start of a range-bound correction phase. The upper Bollinger Band is acting as rigid resistance, and the Bollinger Bands are gradually converging, signaling the end of the unilateral rally and a shift to range-bound consolidation. Short-term support is concentrated around the 4360 level, corresponding to the lower boundary of the ascending channel. If this level is effectively breached, combined with a turning of the moving averages, the current short-term strong uptrend will be considered over. Until then, the pullback is prioritized as a technical correction.
On the hourly chart, the weak market characteristics are further amplified. After the surge to 4450 USD, bullish buying power quickly dried up, selling pressure continued to release, and the price repeatedly broke below multiple short-term moving averages, forming a bearish alignment of the short-term MA system. The Stochastic Oscillator has fallen from the overbought zone to the neutral range, indicating further downside potential to seek support. The intraday rebound highs are gradually lowering, presenting a pattern of progressive weakness, making it difficult to reclaim the previous highs of 4420 and 4450 in the short term. The primary short-term resistance lies in the 4420-4450 USD range, which is the pressure zone from the recent pullback. For the price to resume an uptrend, it must reclaim this range. The short-term support is at 4360-4380 USD, with a core support level below at 4320-4340 USD. The 4300 USD level is crucial as the life line for bulls.
For a Long position strategy: Wait for a pullback to 4360 and a stabilization signal before considering a long position, targeting 4390-4420, with a stop-loss placed below 4355. If the price directly breaks below 4360, abandon the long strategy and avoid blindly catching the falling knife.
For a Short position strategy: On a rebound to the 4420-4440 range, if the price shows signs of stalling, consider a light short position for a tactical pullback, targeting 4380 and 4360, with a stop-loss above 4455. Short positions are purely for short-term tactical trading, not for holding long-term, and should not be viewed as a trend reversal.
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