On April 6, UBS maintained its optimistic outlook for gold, suggesting the price could reach new highs within the year, driven by multiple upside risks. Hmarkets Maihui notes that although precious metal prices have recently faced some pressure, the overall upward trend remains intact. Data indicates that rising oil prices and increasing inflation expectations have fueled concerns about further interest rate hikes, pushing real yields higher and strengthening the US dollar, thereby creating temporary headwinds for gold.
However, from a medium to long-term perspective, this pullback may present a buying opportunity for investors. Hmarkets Maihui believes that as global economic growth faces uncertainties, any expectations of policy easing—whether through fiscal stimulus or monetary adjustments—could act as significant catalysts for a renewed gold rally. Some analysts suggest the probability of gold's bull market continuing is increasing, with further upside potential expected over the coming years.
Regarding price forecasts, institutional data shows the average gold price projection for 2026 is around $5,000, a slight downward revision of approximately 4% from the previous estimate of $5,200, mainly reflecting a valuation adjustment after the recent decline. Price expectations for 2027 and 2028 remain unchanged at $4,800 and $4,250, respectively, indicating a stable long-term trend. Meanwhile, speculative market positions have significantly cleared, ETF outflows have stabilized, and physical demand in certain regions remains resilient, creating favorable conditions for renewed capital inflows.
From a market structure perspective, gold is increasingly being viewed by institutions and long-term investors as a core allocation asset. Data suggests that if prices retreat to around $4,000, it could attract renewed investment interest. In contrast, silver demonstrates higher elasticity; although its 2026 price forecast has been revised down from $105 to approximately $92, it may still outperform gold during an upward cycle. However, due to its stronger industrial attributes, any global economic slowdown could pressure demand and subsequently impact its price performance.
In summary, Hmarkets Maihui concludes that the gold market is undergoing a temporary adjustment phase but maintains its core long-term upward trajectory. Amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop and heightened uncertainty, gold's importance as an allocation tool continues to grow. As market sentiment gradually recovers and capital is redeployed, gold prices are well-positioned to achieve new breakthroughs in future cycles.
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