According to a report from EB SECURITIES, on June 30, 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the '15th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development,' which raised the target output value of the resource recycling industry from the 5 trillion yuan set during the '14th Five-Year Plan' to 8 trillion yuan.
This plan marks the first time that the recycling of solid waste from the 'new three' sectors—wind power, solar PV, and electric vehicle batteries—has been addressed in a dedicated section. It explicitly requires power generation enterprises to incorporate the costs of decommissioning and recycling wind and solar equipment into the construction and operational expenses of power stations, thereby establishing a commercial closed-loop that internalizes costs from the source. This move is expected to resolve the long-standing industry pain point of unclear payment responsibility.
The brokerage believes that with the implementation of this top-level design, the business model for recycling 'new three' solid waste will accelerate, and the industry is poised to enter a phase of standardized, large-scale, and rapid growth. The key points from EB SECURITIES are as follows:
Optimized Assessment Targets and a Shift Towards High-Quality Development
Compared to the '14th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development,' the core targets of this new plan have been optimized and upgraded. The output value target for the resource recycling industry has been increased from 5 trillion yuan in the '14th Five-Year Plan' to 8 trillion yuan in the '15th Five-Year Plan,' establishing it as the central growth objective guiding industry development. For bulk solid waste, the target has shifted from a comprehensive utilization rate (60%) in the previous plan to a utilization volume target (4.5 billion tonnes) in the new one. The industry development goal has evolved from 'basically establishing a resource-recycling industrial system' to 'basically establishing a high-quality development system for the circular economy by 2035.' The plan's orientation is transitioning from 'addressing shortcomings and improving utilization rates' during the system-building phase to 'expanding industrial scale and enhancing added value' in the high-quality development stage, with emerging solid waste categories expected to be a core source of growth.
Dedicated Focus on 'New Three' Recycling and a Mechanism to Internalize Costs
As the new energy economy increasingly becomes a vital engine for China's economic growth, the post-market value and regulatory urgency for handling its associated waste and decommissioned equipment have become more prominent. This plan establishes a dedicated section for 'improving the recycling and utilization system for 'new three' solid waste' for the first time, aiming to enhance standardized recycling through measures such as improving scrappage management, clarifying disposal responsibilities, and健全ing the回收 network. To address the chronic issue of unclear payment responsibility for wind and solar equipment recycling, the plan mandates that power generation enterprises incorporate decommissioning and recycling costs into their power station construction and operational expenses, creating a cost-internalizing commercial closed-loop from the outset. For the power battery sector, the plan calls for further完善ing the full lifecycle recycling system, reinforcing the primary responsibility of producers, and打通ing the协同 across the entire chain from traceability management to cascade use and再生 utilization. With the落地 of top-level design and the continuous完善 of industry standards, the business model for 'new three' solid waste recycling is expected to accelerate, ushering the industry into a phase of standardized, large-scale, and rapid growth.
Traditional 'Urban Mining' Shifts Focus from Volume Expansion to Value Enhancement
The plan includes a targeted section on 'accelerating the high-value development and utilization of traditional 'urban mining',' signaling a formal shift in the development logic of the traditional再生 resource industry from scale expansion to value提升. For mature categories like scrap steel, waste paper, and再生 non-ferrous metals, policy is no longer solely focused on total recycling volume. Instead, it emphasizes standardized recycling and精细化拆解 as the foundation for industry升级, with a key focus on promoting the penetration of再生 materials into sectors such as automotive,高端 manufacturing, home appliances, and daily chemicals to continuously increase their application in high-end scenarios. Simultaneously, the plan requires the establishment of specialized, closed-loop recycling systems for core categories like end-of-life vehicles,废弃 electronic products, and scrap steel,打通ing the full-chain value-added path from front-end collection to back-end深加工, thereby driving the high-value upgrade of traditional 'urban mining.'
Investment Recommendations
(1) As a key focus area of this plan, the 'new three' solid waste recycling industry is expected to accelerate its development. Power battery and solar PV recycling enterprises that possess compliant production capacity qualifications, have布局 across the entire chain of cascade use and再生 utilization, and have深度绑定 relationships with upstream vehicle manufacturers or downstream power station resources are likely to benefit first from the industry红利 brought by the wave of product retirements and the落地 of the payment mechanism.
(2) It is advisable to关注 comprehensive utilization leaders that possess regional disposal barriers, lead in bulk solid waste消纳规模, and are extending their reach下游 into高端再生 materials.
(3) It is advisable to关注 providers of intelligent sorting equipment, core resource化 process technology equipment, and full-chain digital traceability systems.
Risk Factors
The pace of policy implementation may fall short of expectations. Capacity rationalization and technological upgrades in energy-intensive industries may be slower than anticipated due to local economic stabilization pressures. The establishment of 'new three' recycling channels may progress slower than expected.
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