Spot gold traded near $4,490 per ounce during Thursday's European evening session on August 20, following a surge of more than 4% the previous day. The precious metal hit a two-month high of $4,527.49 per ounce intraday, driven by the U.S. Treasury's unexpected announcement to double the size of its long-term bond buyback operations to support market liquidity. This move sent the 30-year Treasury yield sharply lower from near 19-year highs, while the U.S. dollar sank to a three-month low.
Gold encountered resistance around the $4,510-4,515 confluence zone, which combines the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-to-June decline. This suggests that the short-term upside momentum is beginning to fade. Nevertheless, the relative strength index (RSI) sits at 65.17, hovering near overbought territory, while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory, indicating that underlying bullish momentum is still intact.
On the downside, support is seen near $4,430, with a stronger floor at $4,400. As long as gold holds above these levels, the bullish trend remains intact. The current strength in gold prices has fully loaded the bullish momentum, and with prices trending higher in a steady manner, the upside potential appears promising. Key levels to watch include resistance at $4,524 and $4,550, with support at $4,435 and $4,424. For reference, a pullback into the $4,435-4,424 range could offer buying opportunities, while a rebound toward $4,512-4,524 may present selling chances, with targets of 20-50 points. The key pivot for gold stands at $4,473 per ounce. Please note that these views are purely personal opinions and are intended for academic exchange only.
WTI crude oil maintained a narrow trading range during Thursday's Asian session, hovering around $84.50 per barrel after a slight pullback in the previous session. Oil prices have found renewed support, primarily due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East and limited progress in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, which have heightened concerns over further disruptions to crude supply chains. With inventory and demand factors remaining relatively complex, geopolitical risks have re-emerged as a key variable determining the short-term direction of oil prices.
On the 4-hour chart, WTI is maintaining a moderately bullish pattern, with bullish momentum recovering after prices reclaimed the $85 level. The current area around $84.50 represents a key observation zone. If prices can break and hold above $86, the short-term uptrend could strengthen further. However, if repeated attempts to push through $86 fail, a technical correction may follow. During any pullback, $84 serves as a critical level for assessing short-term bullish strength. Holding above this zone suggests the market may still be building momentum for another push higher, while a break below $84 would indicate weakening short-term momentum. Overall, the 4-hour timeframe remains biased toward the upside, but whether oil can continue to advance will heavily depend on whether geopolitical risks continue to expand the risk premium. Key levels include resistance at $87.2 and $89.0, with support at $84.0 and $83.0. For reference, a pullback to the $84.6 range (plus or minus 0.2) could offer buying opportunities, while a rebound toward $87.2 (plus or minus 0.2) may present selling chances, with targets of 2.0-3.0 points per barrel.
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