Against the backdrop of accelerated global industrial chain restructuring, external technology control measures are extending from semiconductors to new quality productive forces such as biomanufacturing and energy storage. How can we ensure industrial chain security while reducing institutional transaction costs in a complex and volatile international environment?
At the "2026 Tsinghua PBCSF Global Finance Forum," Ju Jiandong, Chair Professor at Tsinghua University's PBC School of Finance and Director of the International Finance and Economic Research Center, pointed out that global technology competition has entered a new stage of "competing on development speed and market depth," where simple control measures can hardly hinder technological progress. Meanwhile, digital currency and the construction of regional financial centers are ushering in a new window of opportunity. Western cities should seize the opportunities presented by overland opening-up to achieve differentiated breakthroughs in cross-border payments and the internationalization of the renminbi.
Technology Competition Enters New Stage: Market Scale Becomes Key Determinant "The logic of international technology interaction is evolving, showing a trend of interactive adjustment," Ju Jiandong stated, addressing changes in the external environment. All parties actually hope to reduce unnecessary control barriers, but in practice, strategic dynamic adjustments often occur due to differences in perception and pace.
The core of this difference lies in the assessment of the competitive landscape. Ju Jiandong analyzed that past international division of labor was based on absolute technological generation gaps, whereas today, in many cutting-edge fields, the competitive landscape has transformed into a "speed race" with mutual offense and defense. "The current focus of competition is who develops faster and who can better achieve technological iteration and industrial application."
In this race for speed, market size has become a decisive variable. Ju Jiandong emphasized, "Large waters breed big fish; technological innovation relies on vast application scenarios to realize value and reinvest." No single economy can develop in isolation from the global market. Those with technological advantages need markets to achieve commercial closure, while latecomers need markets to verify and iterate technologies. Therefore, excessive restrictions on technology flows actually harm the common interests of the global industrial chain.
He predicted that as the technological and industrial strength gaps among major global economies gradually narrow, all parties will eventually recognize the reality of interdependence. A multi-layered, bloc-based cooperative pattern is more likely to emerge in the future: regions maintain internal connectivity while managing and cooperating externally as necessary. "Even facing short-term external constraints, we have sufficient resilience and room for maneuver; similarly, other economies cannot ignore the huge potential of the Chinese market." This pragmatic recognition, based on changes in the balance of power, will drive international cooperation from confrontation toward coordination.
Future of Digital Currency: Dynamic Balance Between Regulation and Innovation With the rise of stablecoins globally and the advancement of central bank digital currency (CBDC) research and development, debates about the future form of money are intensifying. Ju Jiandong believes that the future digital financial system must find the optimal balance between compliance regulation and stimulating market vitality.
Regarding stablecoins issued by private institutions, Ju Jiandong holds a cautious yet inclusive stance: "Complete laissez-faire is not advisable, but a blanket ban is also detrimental to innovation. Regulated development is key, and it must be incorporated into the central bank's regulatory framework in some way." He further explained two possible development paths: one involves the central bank setting standards, implementing access approval, and guiding private institutions to participate compliantly; the other starts from CBDC, gradually opening interfaces and cooperation to market institutions.
"Even a central bank-led digital currency system cannot be managed solely by the central bank," Ju Jiandong illustrated. Assuming that digital assets significantly increase their proportion of total financial assets in the future, relying solely on the central bank to operate and maintain the entire system would face challenges in efficiency and coverage. "The future trend will definitely be that the central bank is responsible for regulation and top-level design, while market institutions are responsible for specific applications and service innovation."
He particularly analyzed new trends in global digital financial development. Some developed economies are attempting to use digital asset technology to optimize their treasury management systems, reflecting the logic of financial innovation serving the needs of the real economy. "Technological evolution is an inevitable trend, but the ultimate battle for monetary dominance remains uncertain."
Ju Jiandong cautioned that if existing technological advantages deeply integrate with digital technology, it might further reinforce the current landscape. Therefore, China must adhere to a steady and progressive approach in developing digital finance, encouraging scenario innovation based on technologies like blockchain while effectively preventing financial risks and safeguarding monetary sovereignty.
Breakthrough for Western Financial Centers: New Opportunities in Overland Opening-Up and Diversified Settlement This year marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with "building a financial powerhouse" being included in the five-year plan proposal for the first time. Under the pattern where coastal cities hold traditional advantages, how can western cities achieve differentiated breakthroughs?
Ju Jiandong's answer is to shift from "coastal opening-up" to "overland opening-up," creating a cross-border financial hub serving the Eurasian continent.
"Chengdu is located at a strategic point on the continental bridge, serving as the starting point of the land route to Europe," Ju Jiandong pointed out. With changes in the global geo-economic landscape, the strategic importance of land transport is increasingly prominent. Central and western regions are no longer just inland hinterlands but frontiers of opening-up. This "overland opening-up" complements the traditional maritime opening-up path.
This geographical characteristic brings unique development opportunities. Ju Jiandong observed that in overland economic and trade exchanges with the Eurasian continent, the demand for a diversified settlement system is more urgent. "Many trading partners have concerns about using third-party currencies and prefer local currency settlement or direct exchange."
Therefore, the construction of western financial centers should focus on improving the cross-border payment system and the cross-border use of the renminbi. "We don't need to replicate the models of Shanghai or Hong Kong; instead, we need to address the actual pain points in overland trade," Ju Jiandong suggested. Efforts should be made to explore how to build an efficient, secure, and convenient overland cross-border financial service system, including settlement, clearing, and investment and financing facilitation, thereby empowering China-Eurasia economic and trade cooperation.
Regarding asset allocation concerns of ordinary investors, Ju Jiandong provided a relatively certain macro trend judgment: first, the renminbi has a foundation for long-term appreciation; second, gold holds significant value as a tool to hedge against global uncertainties. "The current world faces dual shocks from geopolitical conflicts and new technological changes, making short-term fluctuations difficult to predict. However, in the long run, supported by the resilience of China's real economy, renminbi-denominated assets have a solid foundation." He expressed optimism about China's macroeconomic fundamentals, believing that as long as openness and cooperation are upheld, the economy will continue to develop healthily.
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