After months of quiet trading, international gold prices have recently shown a clear upward trend. According to Wind data, as of the close on August 8, the international gold price (using the London Gold spot price as an example) stood at $4,341.12 per ounce, recording a weekly gain of 7.28% (from August 3 to August 8), marking the largest single-week increase since the week ending January 23.
The sustained strength in international gold prices is most directly catalyzed by a shift in expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Although the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced at the end of July that it would keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, the unexpectedly weak U.S. non-farm payroll data released on the evening of August 7 (Beijing time) reversed market policy expectations, prompting gold prices to strengthen.
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll figures for July decreased by 23,000, the first decline since February, compared to market expectations for an increase of 80,000. The U.S. unemployment rate for July edged down to 4.1%, the lowest level since June 2025, and below the median market expectation of 4.2%.
Liu Siyuan, Chief Analyst at Lingxiu Finance, stated that the shift from growth to decline in U.S. non-farm payroll data not only significantly reduces the momentum for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates but also notably heats up market expectations for a rate cut. The expected decline in the real yield of U.S. Treasury bonds will undoubtedly lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, directly boosting international gold prices. Additionally, recent uncertainties in the geopolitical landscape have continuously increased demand for safe-haven assets, accelerating capital inflows into gold.
Looking at the year so far, although international gold prices have experienced volatility and corrections since hitting an all-time high at the end of January, global central banks have continued their gold-buying spree, providing a solid floor for gold prices. The World Gold Council's Global Gold Demand Trends Report for the second quarter of 2026 showed that despite the retreat of international gold prices from their historical highs set at the beginning of 2026, central banks and other official institutions globally added a net 289 tonnes of gold reserves in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 62%. Gold purchase activities by central banks in several countries have picked up.
The World Gold Council's 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey indicated that 45% of the central banks surveyed expect to increase their gold reserves over the next year, highlighting the stable and important long-term role of gold in official reserves. Liu Siyuan noted that overall, against the backdrop of ongoing global geopolitical risks, fiscal sustainability pressures in major economies, and the accelerated evolution of the international monetary system, the strategic value of gold as a non-sovereign credit asset is being repriced by central banks globally.
Regarding the future performance of international gold prices, Shi Jialiang, Assistant General Manager of the Industrial Development Headquarters at Zhongtai Futures, said that in the short term, gold prices are likely to maintain a volatile but strong trend. In the medium to long term, the pricing logic for gold will revert to the four core themes of safe-haven demand, reserve demand, allocation demand, and monetary policy easing. According to Shi Jialiang, the medium-to-long-term positive factors supporting gold prices have not fundamentally changed. On one hand, the pace of gold purchases by major global central banks continues, and the weakening of the credit-based monetary system further highlights gold's reserve value. On the other hand, the continuation of expansionary fiscal policies in major economies, the difficulty of substantively tightening monetary policy, and the fondness of asset allocation funds for gold together build a solid support for international gold prices.
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