The prospect of a ceasefire in US-Iran hostilities remains unclear.
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump explicitly dismissed the possibility of immediate talks with Iran, stating that while Iran is "desperate to meet," the United States has "no interest" in doing so until Tehran is prepared for "meaningful talks." He further declared that the struggle with Iran is "not over at all," and the US will not leave the region. He warned that the US would take action if Iran even considered developing nuclear capabilities, targeting relevant areas.
According to reports, Trump stated that the US would "soon" strike the underground nuclear facility at "Mount Kūh-e Qā'em," located south of Natanz, and that the strike would be "very severe."
Regarding threats by the Yemeni Houthi movement, which is seen as backed by Iran, to blockade Saudi maritime transport, Trump issued a warning. He stated that while the Red Sea is currently "not" blocked, the US would take action if such a blockade occurred.
Also on Tuesday, Iranian media reported that Iran has deployed new air defense systems, a move seen as bolstering its domestic defense capabilities in response to potential further US airstrikes. With Trump explicitly targeting deeper, harder-to-destroy underground facilities, the military confrontation is exhibiting a pattern of "synchronized offensive and defensive escalation."
Earlier reports of a proposed 10-day ceasefire by mediators and Iran's confirmation of receiving the offer had surfaced. However, Trump's latest remarks indicate that the current US priority remains military pressure rather than an immediate return to the negotiating table. The conflict shows no clear signs of de-escalation and is instead developing along a path of "continued strikes on Iran—expanded shipping pressure—difficult diplomatic progress."
Trump on Iran Talks: "Desperate to Meet," but Struggle "Not Over"
Trump stated at the White House that Iranian officials, in back-channel communications, have expressed they are "desperate to meet and try to end this war" because Iran "is getting hit very hard."
However, he did not signal a readiness to immediately pursue negotiations. Instead, he set the precondition that Iran must first be prepared for "meaningful talks." This implies that, in Trump's view, mere contact, a ceasefire, or symbolic diplomatic engagement is insufficient to alter the current US military course. The US appears to want substantive concessions from Iran on key issues before negotiations can genuinely begin.
Trump also expressed a pessimistic view on the possibility of talks to end the war. More notably, he emphasized that the struggle with Iran is "not over at all," and the US will not leave Iran. When asked if the US would strike Iran merely for considering nuclear development, he affirmed the US would take action in the relevant areas, adding that Iran "hasn't seen anything yet."
He stated that while the US would have achieved a "great success" if it left Iran the next day, "we're not leaving tomorrow." This stance suggests Trump does not view recent military actions as a concluded, limited operation but explicitly retains the option to continue and expand military pressure.
For markets, this is particularly significant. If the US defines its actions as an ongoing, long-term military campaign, previous market expectations of a "quick conflict resolution and normalization in the Strait of Hormuz" may need to be repriced.
Trump Threatens "Severe" Strike on "Mount Kūh-e Qā'em" Facility
As the prospect for talks dimmed, US military threats escalated further. Trump stated the US would "soon" strike the underground facility at "Mount Kūh-e Qā'em," south of Natanz, and the strike would be "very severe."
When asked if Iran had moved centrifuges to the tunnel complex there, Trump said, "I think they might have, but we don't have solid records." He added that facilities alone are meaningless without nuclear material, stating, "We're tracking the material. That's the key."
Trump had previously indicated in an interview last week that the US "may do something soon on Kūh-e Qā'em."
Reportedly, "Mount Kūh-e Qā'em," located about 1.6 kilometers south of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, features two deeply buried tunnel complexes and is considered one of Iran's most fortified underground nuclear sites. Israeli assessments suggest that following the 12-day war last June, Iran transferred advanced centrifuges and part of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to this underground facility.
If Trump's threat materializes, US strikes could expand from previous targets like military sites, missiles, and air defense systems to deeper underground nuclear-related facilities. Against the backdrop of Iran deploying new air defense systems, a clear "offense-defense escalation" is underway, compressing the space for diplomatic negotiation.
Iranian President Cites Supreme Leader's Directive to End "Neither War Nor Peace"
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stated that his contact with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has increased significantly and that all government actions are based on the Supreme Leader's guidance. He said that under Khamenei's leadership, Iran's policies will continue.
Raisi also mentioned that Khamenei emphasized in closed-door meetings the need to end the situation of "neither war nor peace," though he did not elaborate further.
In a separate statement, Raisi stressed the current necessity for Iran to maintain internal unity and cohesion and cautioned against unfounded disparagement of negotiation achievements. He noted that despite US breaches of agreement, Iran's gains in processes related to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restoring oil exports have "far exceeded expectations."
10-Day Ceasefire Proposal Faces Hurdles: US Focus Remains on "Punishing Iran"
While Trump issued tough signals, diplomatic mediation continues. Reports earlier this week indicated that mediators like Qatar proposed a 10-day ceasefire to ease tensions and revive previous temporary arrangements.
However, according to a US official, Trump's current focus is on punishing Iran for its previous attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The official stated that US military strikes will continue until Trump chooses to change course, even as diplomatic efforts proceed.
This creates a contradictory situation: diplomatic channels remain open, but military action has not paused; a ceasefire proposal is being advanced, yet Trump explicitly states the US has no interest in meeting an Iran not ready for "meaningful talks." Therefore, the implementation of a 10-day ceasefire largely depends on whether the two sides can first resolve the Strait of Hormuz shipping issue and whether Iran is willing to make the substantive commitments demanded by the US.
Market hopes that ceasefire mediation might ease the conflict and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are tempered by the significant remaining differences between the US and Iran.
Houthis Open New Front in the Red Sea
The risks of the US-Iran conflict are not confined to the Persian Gulf. The Yemeni Houthi movement recently announced a "maritime embargo" on Saudi Arabia, warning that ships calling at Saudi ports could face military strikes.
Following these threats, two oil tankers carrying Saudi crude bound for Asia reportedly turned around, opting to reroute via the Suez Canal. While loading operations continue at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port, some vessels have taken precautionary measures like turning off tracking systems.
This introduces new uncertainty for Saudi crude shipments. Saudi Arabia had previously used pipelines to send some crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. If Houthi threats against the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait escalate, this alternative route, meant to bypass Hormuz risks, could also be impacted. The Houthi actions could have broader implications for global oil transportation.
Trump on Red Sea: US Will Act if Blocked
Trump also addressed the Red Sea situation, warning that while it is currently "not" blocked, "if it does happen, we'll take action." This leaves clear room for potential US intervention in Red Sea affairs.
If the Houthis expand their "maritime embargo" into actual military action against more vessels, the US could face the challenge of managing crises in two critical shipping chokepoints simultaneously: the Strait of Hormuz, with core risks from direct US-Iran conflict, and the Red Sea-Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with risks from Houthi threats to Saudi and related shipping.
This represents one of the most concerning developments in the current Middle East situation. Previously, market concerns centered on the Strait of Hormuz. Now, a tangible shipping threat has re-emerged in the Red Sea direction. If both major shipping arteries are simultaneously affected by military risks, global energy transport, container shipping, insurance costs, and supply chain expenses could face significant pressure.
Talks Continue, but "Ceasefire Window" Narrows
Diplomatic channels between the US and Iran have not completely closed. Mediators are still pushing the 10-day ceasefire proposal, and related diplomatic efforts continue.
However, judging from Trump's latest statements, Washington is not prepared to immediately halt military operations due to diplomatic mediation. Trump's logic is clear: Iran wants to meet but must first be ready for "meaningful talks"; the US can talk but will not proactively reduce pressure before its military objectives are met.
Simultaneously, Trump indicated the US will not leave Iran and hinted that Iran "hasn't seen anything yet" regarding US military capability.
Consequently, the current US-Iran situation presents a dangerous "fighting while talking" dynamic: diplomatic channels remain open, but military action continues; a ceasefire proposal exists, but the President publicly states no urgency to meet; Iran seeks to end the conflict, but the US believes Iran is not yet ready for genuine negotiation. Beyond the immediate battlefield, Houthi threats to Saudi shipping add a new variable.
Moving forward, markets should monitor three key developments:
Whether Trump's threatened strike on the "Mount Kūh-e Qā'em" underground facility materializes;
Whether the 10-day ceasefire proposal can overcome the US military stance of "continuing to punish Iran";
Whether Houthi threats against Saudi shipping escalate from warnings to actual attacks.
If all three developments trend negatively, the US-Iran conflict could further spill over into the Red Sea. The global market would then confront not just a short-term military clash, but a potential Middle East crisis simultaneously impacting two critical global shipping chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
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