Musk directly addressed the possibility of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX during the earnings call, stating that cooperation between the two is deepening and "overlap is increasing," prompting analysts to raise the probability of a merger to 90%. At the business level, both companies are accelerating the integration of projects such as Grok AI, Optimus, and the Starlink satellite network.
Tesla's latest earnings call not only delivered financial results but also unexpectedly served as a catalyst for the market to reassess the potential merger prospects between Tesla and SpaceX.
During Wednesday's earnings call, Musk responded to questions about a merger between the two companies, stating that their collaboration is deepening, with "more and more overlap." Deepwater Asset Management analyst Gene Munster subsequently raised his probability forecast for a Tesla-SpaceX merger from 80% to 90%, predicting the merger would occur within the next few years.
Meanwhile, Tesla's second-quarter revenue exceeded expectations, but earnings per share fell short. The stock fell more than 5% in after-hours trading, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
Musk's First Direct Response to Merger Question
Previously, market discussions about a Tesla-SpaceX merger largely remained speculative, with Musk rarely addressing the topic directly in public. During this earnings call, Musk was directly asked whether a merger would be strategically significant. He did not avoid the question, instead elaborating on the expanding collaboration between the two companies.
"As you can see from the many collaborations between SpaceX and Tesla in many areas, there is more and more overlap, especially on the Terafab project, which is going to be a truly massive engineering project," Musk said. He also emphasized that an earnings call is not the appropriate venue to discuss potential deals, stating any advancement "must go through the proper process" and referring related matters to Tesla's legal team.
Gene Munster posted on X that he was surprised Tesla's management was willing to address the question directly, which directly prompted him to revise his probability assessment. "Going into the call, I thought there was an 80% chance the two companies merge in the next few years. I'm moving that to 90%," he wrote.
Business Integration Between the Two Companies Accelerating
During the call, Musk detailed several specific areas of collaboration, indicating the integration process has advanced beyond prior external expectations.
According to Musk, current cooperation spans multiple levels: Grok AI has been integrated into Tesla vehicles; the digital Optimus robot project is progressing; and Starlink satellite internet will provide connectivity support for the Cybercab and future Tesla models to address coverage issues for Robotaxi in areas with weak cellular signals.
"We can't have the Robotaxi getting stuck in the 'Bermuda Triangle' of these cellular dead zones," Musk said. The satellite connectivity solution is seen as a key infrastructure guarantee for the commercialization of its autonomous ride-hailing network.
Revenue Beats, Earnings Per Share Misses
Despite the market's broad focus on the merger topic, Tesla's quarterly performance itself presented a mixed picture.
Tesla's second-quarter revenue was $28.24 billion, surpassing Wall Street expectations of $25.71 billion. Deliveries for the quarter totaled 480,126 vehicles, a 25% year-over-year increase, setting a new record. However, earnings per share were only 33 cents, significantly below the analyst consensus of 50 cents.
The earnings miss put noticeable pressure on the stock. Tesla shares closed down 1.30% on Wednesday and fell a further 4.13% after the earnings release. According to Benzinga's rating data, Tesla's momentum score is in the 36th percentile, while its growth score sits in the 88th percentile.
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