Soochow Securities: Semiconductor Industry Seizes Multiple Opportunities Driven by Localization and AI Innovation

Stock News12-11

Soochow Securities released a research report highlighting robust global AI capital expenditure growth, with domestic computing chips poised for earnings acceleration. Cloud-side localization is accelerating, while NPUs on the device side are unlocking new scenarios. The memory sector is experiencing a "super cycle," with breakthroughs in advanced packaging and equipment autonomy. AI is driving consumer electronics upgrades and AR product launches, boosting volume and prices across the PCB/CCL supply chain. Key insights include:

**Cloud Computing Chips**: Heavy AICapEx investments favor domestic players like Cambricon (688256.SH) and Hygon (688041.SH). Huawei’s Ascend, a core domestic platform, leads with its "SuperPoD" strategy, achieving performance parity with NVIDIA’s GB200 via 10,000-card interconnectivity.

**Device-Side Computing Chips**: Overseas demand and NPU innovations are creating opportunities. Google’s integration of AI into core products exemplifies cloud-to-device synergy. Rockchip (603893) is pioneering NPU coprocessors with embedded DRAM for dynamic balance in computing, storage, and bandwidth.

**Memory**: A strong cyclical upturn since Q2 2025 may extend through 2026. DRAM and NAND indices surged 101% and 79% respectively (Sept–Nov 2025), driven by CSPs’ insensitivity to pricing. Domestic players benefit from rising enterprise storage demand amid revised capex plans by ByteDance and Alibaba.

**Analog Chips**: Automotive demand grows, though price pressures persist. Industrial recovery is nascent, with potential policy shifts (e.g., anti-dumping) reshaping supply. Emerging AI-driven analog chips, like Drmos and micro-pump cooling, show promise.

**Wafer Manufacturing**: 2026 will see dual expansion in memory and advanced logic, sustaining high foundry demand. Domestic breakthroughs in lithography (e.g., SMEE) and advanced packaging (e.g., SJ Semiconductor) are reshaping supply chains.

**Consumer Electronics**: AI phones evolve into OS-level agents, with Apple’s upgrades likely triggering replacement cycles. AR glasses approach an inflection point in 2026, with Meta, Apple, and Samsung’s launches spurring opportunities in Micro-LED and optical waveguides.

**PCB/CCL**: AI drives architectural upgrades, with NVIDIA’s Rubin/Kyber and Google’s TPUv8 adopting M9 materials, doubling PCB values per rack. Quartz fabric demand for 224Gbps speeds may triple by 2027, while HVLP4 copper foil shortages accelerate import substitution.

**Risks**: Slower AI infrastructure rollout, price wars, material cost volatility, forex fluctuations, and delayed AI adoption.

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