China Galaxy Securities has released a research report indicating that during the 2026 Spring Festival period, both the number of domestic tourist trips and total tourism spending reached historic highs. Duty-free shopping sales and shopper numbers on Hainan Island during the holiday rose by 30.8% and 35.4% year-on-year, respectively, meeting expectations as extended holiday duration drove demand upward. Post-holiday travel data for the first week surpassed pre-holiday figures, with off-season metrics clearly reflecting an upward trend in service consumption. The firm recommends China Tourism Group Duty Free (01880) and Gu Ming (01364), while suggesting investors monitor Mixue Group (02097), Damai Entertainment (01060), and Galaxy Entertainment (00027).
Key observations from China Galaxy Securities are as follows:
Spring Festival holiday data aligned with expectations, with the longer holiday period stimulating demand. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the 9-day 2026 Spring Festival holiday, domestic tourist trips reached 596 million, a 19% year-on-year increase, averaging 66 million trips per day, up 5.7% year-on-year. Total domestic tourism spending reached 803.5 billion yuan, rising 19% year-on-year, with daily average spending of 89.3 billion yuan, up 5.5% year-on-year. Per capita spending was 1,348 yuan, flat year-on-year, while daily per capita spending fell 11.3% to 150 yuan. Although daily per capita spending declined noticeably, several factors explain this trend, including weather conditions—such as a warm winter affecting ice and snow tourism—and the extended holiday period, which led to some travelers returning earlier than usual.
Post-holiday travel data in the first week outperformed pre-holiday figures, with off-season data clearly indicating an improvement in service consumption. Travel consumption typically enters a low season after the Spring Festival, making this period more reflective of actual service consumption trends, as it is less affected by non-comparable factors. Tracked data shows that off-season travel consumption has risen, with improvements in both leisure and business travel. According to Ministry of Transport data, average growth rates for cross-regional passenger flows, railway trips, and civil aviation trips in the first week after the holiday (February 24–28) were 5.0%, 12.5%, and 9.2%, respectively, compared to 3.0%, 2.8%, and 4.4% during the first 13 days of the Spring Festival travel period (February 2–14), representing increases of 2.0, 9.7, and 4.8 percentage points. Additionally, domestic airfare increases after the holiday were significantly higher than before the holiday. Data from Flight Master shows that the average growth rate for domestic economy class airfares during the first 13 days of the travel period (February 2–14) was 2.0%, rising to 8.3% in the first week after the holiday (February 24–28). According to CADAS data, the average growth rate for domestic business and first-class fares including taxes was 3.5% in the first post-holiday week (February 24–28), compared to -2.5% during the first 13 days of the travel period (February 2–14), indicating an improvement in business travel as well.
Policies and supply-demand dynamics are moving toward equilibrium, reinforcing the upward trend in service consumption. First, expanding domestic demand and boosting service consumption have been key government priorities over the past two years, with policy efforts focused on institutional optimization and releasing high-quality supply to drive consumption growth, supplemented by consumer voucher subsidies. Second, after more than two years of supply-demand rebalancing, both consumers and businesses have adapted to a more rational consumption environment amid moderated expectations. Companies are focusing on providing cost-effective products with emotional value or those with improved corporate governance that can drive performance. Third, high-end consumption remains unaffected by policy changes, with RMB appreciation and shifts in the geopolitical environment redirecting high-end consumption toward Greater China.
Recommended stocks include China Tourism Group Duty Free, BTG Hotels Group, Jinjiang Hotels, Gu Ming, Auntie Shanghai, and Sante Cableway. Investors are also advised to monitor Zhuhai Duty Free Group, Mixue Group, Haidilao, Yum China, Jiujiu Ma, CaoCao Mobility, Damai Entertainment, Galaxy Entertainment, and Sands China.
Risks include intensified industry competition, macroeconomic downturns, and policy-related uncertainties.
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