On January 21, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) released its market scan. From January 1 to 18, national passenger vehicle retail sales reached 679,000 units, representing a 28% decline compared to the same period last January and a 37% drop from the previous month. Cumulative retail sales for the year so far stand at 679,000 units, down 28% year-on-year.
During the same January 1-18 period, national passenger vehicle manufacturer wholesale volume reached 740,000 units, a 35% decrease compared to the same period last January and a 30% drop from the previous month. Cumulative wholesale volume for the year so far is 740,000 units, down 35% year-on-year.
From January 1 to 18, the national new energy passenger vehicle retail market reached 312,000 units, a 16% decline compared to the same period last January and a significant 52% drop from the previous month. Cumulative new energy retail sales for the year so far are 312,000 units, down 16% year-on-year.
In the same January 1-18 period, national passenger vehicle manufacturer new energy wholesale volume was 348,000 units, reflecting a 23% decrease compared to the same period last January and a 46% drop from the previous month. Cumulative new energy wholesale volume for the year so far is 348,000 units, down 23% year-on-year.
According to the latest data, national pure-fuel light vehicle production in the first two weeks of January was 91,000 units, a sharp 85% decline compared to the same period last January and a 77% drop from the previous month.
Currently, total production of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the first two weeks of January was 139,000 units, a 65% decrease compared to the same period last January and a 75% drop from the previous month.
The trend of national passenger vehicle retail sales in January 2026 shows that the average daily retail volume in the first week was 30,000 units, down 32% year-on-year and 42% month-on-month.
In the second week of January, the average daily retail volume was 50,000 units, representing a 22% year-on-year decrease and a 31% drop from the previous month.
From January 1 to 18, national passenger vehicle retail sales totaled 679,000 units, a 28% decline compared to the same period last January and a 37% drop from the previous month. Cumulative retail sales for the year so far stand at 679,000 units, down 28% year-on-year.
On December 30, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on implementing large-scale equipment updates and consumer trade-in policies in 2026, a move expected to further drive domestic automobile consumption growth and boost January's auto sales.
The 2026 policy maintains strong support for commercial vehicle renewal subsidies, while subsidies for passenger vehicle scrapping and renewal are calculated to decrease by an average of 20% per vehicle based on the 2025 structure, with trade-in subsidies potentially falling by up to 30%.
Regarding the scope of replacement subsidies, used cars transferred after January 8, 2025, are ineligible for replacement subsidies, significantly narrowing the subsidy coverage.
Due to this structural policy adjustment contrast, the growth effect for commercial vehicles as production assets in 2026 is expected to outperform the growth of consumer-oriented passenger vehicles.
With the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy having just ended, and only some provinces and cities beginning to implement replacement subsidies, coupled with the fact that mid-January last year was a peak sales period before the Spring Festival, the relatively weak retail performance in January due to the holiday timing shift is understandable.
As local subsidy details and channels are fully activated, and pre-holiday purchasing power is gradually released, the market is expected to improve steadily.
The trend of national passenger vehicle manufacturer wholesale sales in January 2026 indicates an average daily wholesale volume of 35,000 units in the first week, down 40% year-on-year and 30% month-on-month.
In the second week of January, the average daily wholesale volume was 51,000 units, a 28% decrease compared to the same period last January and a 30% drop from the previous month.
From January 1 to 18, national passenger vehicle manufacturer wholesale volume reached 740,000 units, a 35% decline compared to the same period last January and a 30% drop from the previous month. Cumulative wholesale volume for the year so far is 740,000 units, down 35% year-on-year.
The New Year's Day holiday in January 2025 was only one day, whereas this year features a normal three-day consecutive holiday, leading to a weaker start in early January that is expected to improve significantly later.
Achieving a "strong start" in January has been a goal for local governments and automakers for years; combined with the impact of the Spring Festival in February, this creates a certain volume of wholesale transfers in January.
Factoring in the current market's pre-order model, some companies still have a considerable number of orders awaiting delivery.
As the start of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period and given that this year is significant for auto consumption, timing is particularly crucial, and January's year-on-year sales are expected to achieve slight growth.
From January to December 2025, automotive investment grew by 12%, production increased by 10%, while auto consumption declined by 2%.
In 2025, the state actively implemented trade-in policies, production demand continued to grow, prices remained generally stable, new energy vehicles experienced strong growth, and new achievements were made in high-quality development.
In December, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4,513.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. Within this, auto consumption was 548.2 billion yuan, down 5% year-on-year; retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 3,965.4 billion yuan, up 1.7%.
For the full year 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 50,120.2 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% over the previous year. Auto consumption amounted to 4,978.9 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year; retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 45,141.3 billion yuan, up 4.4%.
In December 2025, automobile production was 3.41 million units, down 3% year-on-year; new energy vehicle production was 1.79 million units, up 9% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 52%; fuel vehicle production was 1.62 million units, down 13% year-on-year.
From January to December 2025, automobile production totaled 34.78 million units, up 10% year-on-year; new energy vehicle production was 16.52 million units, up 25% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 48%; fuel vehicle production was 18.25 million units, down 1% year-on-year.
Currently, the external environment is becoming more complex and severe, with rising unilateralism and protectionism impacting the stability of industrial and supply chains. Domestically, the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid, challenges such as insufficient effective demand and disorderly market competition persist, making the task of stabilizing industry growth still arduous.
The trade-in subsidy policy ignited the auto market in 2025, with particularly significant effects in the first three quarters. As passenger vehicle subsidies in 2025 were far lower than those for commercial vehicles, commercial vehicle subsidies drove retail growth effectively in December 2025.
2026 continues with high commercial vehicle subsidies, while passenger vehicle renewal subsidies decrease by 20%-30%, placing significant pressure on passenger vehicle consumption. There is anticipation for future long-term, strong follow-up policies, such as减免购车人员个税、推动新能源车下乡、优化C7经济型电动车驾照申领、给200公里以下续航的合规纯电动车免车购税、鼓励结婚购车、鼓励生育购车等更多的改善措施, to stimulate car purchase consumption and promote economic growth.
Amid the high growth of new energy vehicles, the automotive engine market continues to grow steadily. Against the backdrop of rapid development in the new energy vehicle industry, the traditional fuel vehicle market faces transformation pressure. However, as a core component, the automotive engine market as a whole has not experienced剧烈波动, instead showing a relatively stable development trend.
This is also primarily because plug-in hybrid new energy models still require gasoline engines, coupled with the significant contribution of fuel vehicle exports, leading to overall stability in the automotive engine market.
Looking at the trend of automotive engine production over the years, the market overall maintains the core characteristic of being "stable with slight increases." Between 2017 and 2025, gasoline engines consistently dominated the engine market, with production remaining at high levels, reaching 21.13 million units in 2025. Despite minor fluctuations, the overall scale of gasoline engines has stabilized and risen since 2021 alongside export growth.
Diesel engine production showed a clear contraction trend, gradually declining from 3.57 million units in 2017 to 2.61 million units in 2025, mainly due to adjustments in commercial vehicle market demand and substitution pressure from tightening environmental policies.
Production of other fuel engines remained relatively small in scale but consistently stable, serving as an important政策性补充 in the market structure.
Overall, although new energy vehicles have impacted traditional fuel engines, the vast存量市场 and essential demand scenarios for fuel vehicles (such as plug-in hybrids, mainstream fuel vehicles, etc.), combined with technological upgrades and structural optimization by engine manufacturers, have prevented a sharp decline in the overall engine market, achieving stable operation.
In December 2025, the national pickup truck market experienced strong growth. Pickup truck sales in December 2025 reached 52,000 units, up 8.8% year-on-year, reaching a high level in the past five years.
From January to December 2025, pickup truck sales totaled 589,000 units, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year. Pickup truck production in December 2025 was 48,000 units, up 5.2% year-on-year, at a medium-high level for the past five years.
From January to December 2025, pickup truck production was 575,000 units, up 14% year-on-year. Great Wall Motor (02333) continued to maintain its strong leading position in pickups, with stable performance both domestically and internationally.
Boosted by sustained year-on-year export growth, Great Wall Motor, Changan Automobile (000625.SZ), SAIC Maxus, Jianghuai Automobile (600418.SH), and Zhengzhou Nissan performed strongly.
In the domestic pickup truck retail market, Great Wall Pickup, Jiangling Motors (000550.SZ), Zhengzhou Nissan, Radar Auto, and Jiangxi Isuzu performed well, maintaining the domestic "one superpower, multiple strong players"格局.
The main regions for the pickup truck market are concentrated in the Southwest and Northwest, where demand is substantial. In December 2025, demand in the Southwest and Northwest accounted for 46% of total demand, making them the two core markets, while performance was weaker in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shanxi region.
As the high growth rate of new energy pickups slows, their contribution to the pickup market is weaker than that of logistics-type electric vehicles.
Pickup truck exports: In December 2025, national pickup truck exports reached 28,000 units, up 12% year-on-year but down 7% month-on-month, with the export share of the industry remaining high. From January to December, pickup truck exports totaled 300,000 units, up 21% year-on-year.
Pickup truck exports accounted for 45% of total pickup sales in 2024. From January to December 2025, pickup truck exports reached 50%, indicating accelerated exports of Chinese domestic pickups and good growth.
New energy pickups: In December 2025, new energy pickup sales were 6,000 units, down 3% year-on-year and 30% month-on-month. Cumulative new energy pickup sales from January to December were 73,000 units, surging 243%, showing a much stronger growth trend than the overall pickup market.
Given the surge in demand for electric light trucks for logistics, electrification is seen as the best way to enhance road access rights for commercial vehicles. With the development of electrification and passenger-oriented features, the growth potential of the pickup truck market is gradually improving.
In December new energy pickup sales: Geely's Radar electric pickup sold 2,092 units, BYD pickup overseas sales were 1,200 units, Zhengzhou Nissan sold 1,081 units, Changan range-extended pickup sold 753 units, Jiangling new energy pickup sold 285 units, and other pickup manufacturers also had a certain scale of new energy vehicle sales.
With the initiation of the domestic new energy pickup market and gradual market cultivation, China's pickup truck sector is expected to develop faster in the future to meet domestic and international demand.
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