Global food supply is confronting a severe test from multiple converging crises. Triggered by the Middle East conflict and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the fertilizer supply chain has been severely damaged. This disruption, combined with soaring diesel prices, historic drought conditions, and the approach of a "Super El Niño," is placing unprecedented fourfold pressure on global agricultural production.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations issued a public warning this week that, without urgent action from governments, a severe global food crisis could erupt within the next 6 to 12 months. The head of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Alexander De Croo, used more direct language, stating that due to a sharp drop in fertilizer production, "many parts of the world will face food shortages in September or October this year."
This warning is being corroborated by a series of data points. U.S. winter wheat production this year is forecast to drop 21% compared to 2025, hitting its lowest level since 1972. Simultaneously, the planting area for U.S. spring wheat is projected to reach a historic low since records began in 1919. On a global scale, even before the outbreak of the Iran war, the number of people suffering severe hunger was already at a historic peak.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is the central trigger for this round of the food crisis.
The FAO warns that the strait's blockade could trigger a severe global food price crisis within 6 to 12 months. Decisions governments are making now regarding fertilizer use, imports, financing, and crop choices will directly determine whether food prices surge sharply later this year or in early 2027.
Due to the blockade, millions of farmers in the Northern Hemisphere did not receive the fertilizer they needed during the spring planting season. Even when fertilizer was available, prohibitively high prices put it out of reach for most. A recent survey indicated that 70% of U.S. farmers could not afford to purchase all the fertilizer required for spring planting due to high costs.
Beyond the fertilizer shortage, a sharp rise in diesel prices is further squeezing farmers' production margins.
Nearly all agricultural machinery runs on diesel. Currently, the national average price for diesel in the U.S. is approximately $5.5 per gallon. The situation is particularly severe in the major agricultural state of California. According to AAA data, California's average diesel price has reached about $7.43 per gallon, an increase of $2.36 compared to the same period last year. In the key agricultural hub of Fresno, diesel prices are as high as $7.48 per gallon.
California holds a pivotal position in agriculture, leading the nation by a wide margin in both fruit and vegetable production. The sharp increase in diesel costs directly raises production expenses for California and the entire U.S., which will ultimately be passed on to consumer prices.
Meanwhile, extreme drought is causing severe damage in America's agricultural heartland.
The first three months of this year were the driest such period on record for the U.S. In West Texas, persistent drought has caused cracks in the ground wide enough to swallow an entire hand. Local farmer Scott Irlbeck described how wheat planted last autumn has yielded almost nothing due to a lack of rain. He is now hoping his insurance company will declare it a total loss to avoid the high fuel costs of harvesting it.
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data shows that this year's winter wheat production is forecast at 1.56 billion bushels, down 21% from 2025 and the lowest since 1972. The harvested area for winter wheat this year is only 22 million acres, while the planted area was 32.4 million acres, resulting in a harvest abandonment rate exceeding 32%. This means nearly one-third of the winter wheat crop was abandoned by farmers before harvest.
Looking ahead, U.S. farmers are projected to plant the smallest spring wheat area on record since 1919. Notably, the U.S. population in 1919 was only 104 million, whereas today it exceeds 340 million, accelerating the gap between food demand and supply.
Beyond these multiple pressures, a larger climate variable is approaching: a "Super El Niño."
The El Niño phenomenon, triggered by abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, causes significant shifts in weather patterns globally. The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) has already issued warnings. Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the University at Albany, stated that the probability of this "Super El Niño" becoming the strongest event on record is about 50%, adding, "My estimate a few weeks ago was only around 20%."
Historical precedent is sobering. The "Super El Niño" of 1877-1878 triggered widespread global famine, resulting in over 50 million deaths. The FAO notes that the impending "Super El Niño" could have even more severe consequences, further intensifying the strain on a global food production system already made vulnerable by fertilizer shortages and drought.
The impact of the food crisis is not merely predictive; some regions are already facing severe hardship. UN data shows that even before the outbreak of the Middle East war, the number of people globally suffering severe hunger was at a historic high. As the effects of the fertilizer shortage fully manifest during this autumn's harvest season, the global food supply gap is expected to widen further, and food security conditions could deteriorate sharply in the coming months.
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