Lithium battery concept stocks experienced a collective rebound. At the time of writing, Ganfeng Lithium Group Co., Ltd. (01772) rose 7.1% to HK$63.35; CALB (03931) increased 6.4% to HK$28.94; Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696) gained 5.36% to HK$58; and CATL (03750) edged up 1.28% to HK$491.4. The market movement follows a joint announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration adjusting the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and battery products, specifying a phased reduction and eventual cancellation of the battery product export tax rebate rate starting in 2026. CITIC Futures pointed out that the market is quickly pricing in a rush-to-export logic. The policy change has strengthened market expectations for short-term demand being pulled forward and increased downstream production scheduling, although the long-term logic for new energy and energy storage demand remains unchanged. Stimulated by the news, lithium carbonate prices surged strongly to hit the daily limit up. It is reported that battery companies are increasing their production orders to "rush exports" before April. Huatai Securities believes that the reduction in the export tax rebate rate will, in the short term, drive a rush to export batteries ahead of the 2026 deadline, intensifying supply-demand tightness in sectors like lithium ore and lithium hexafluorophosphate. In the long run, it will promote the exit of outdated domestic production capacity, optimize the battery industry structure, and benefit companies with overseas capacity布局.
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