Against the backdrop of economic transition and cyclical fluctuations, the financial system shoulders the critical mission of stabilizing expectations, growth, and structure. Navigating direction and calibrating pace within a complex environment has become a practical challenge the financial industry must confront directly.
Sina Finance's special series, "Financial New Voyage: Steering a Steady Course," focuses on macro-policy directions, financial operational logic, and reforms in key sectors. It invites senior executives, experts, and scholars from the financial industry to delve into how finance can better serve the real economy and enhance systemic resilience, documenting the key judgments and practical pathways of China's finance sector as it "seeks progress while maintaining stability."
This installment features an interview with Samir Subberwal, Global Head of Wealth Solutions, Retail Banking Products & Data Analytics at Standard Chartered Bank. He believes that, at the policy level, China's support for asset prices is relatively clear, and the orientation of fiscal and monetary policy at the macro level is also quite proactive. From a fundamental perspective, the Chinese economy overall remains stable.
From valuation and capital allocation viewpoints, Chinese assets are currently at relatively low levels. The correlation of Chinese assets with major global markets has been relatively low over the past period. With rising geopolitical uncertainties and high asset correlations in European and American markets, Chinese assets possess certain diversification and hedging value, which is one of the key reasons overseas investors consider allocating to China.
Subberwal mentioned that, given the overall decline in Renminbi time deposit rates currently, the opportunity cost of "moving deposits into the stock market" is relatively low. He stated that a key focus for Standard Chartered China's business development this year is also related to the wave of maturing deposits. Deposit rates were relatively high three years ago, and many time deposits are maturing successively. With current Renminbi time deposit rates having fallen significantly, a considerable portion of these maturing funds may shift towards wealth management and investment products.
Chinese asset price support is clear, and they possess hedging value. Sina Finance: In the current global market environment, what is the primary allocation value of Chinese assets for global portfolios? Subberwal: This is based on several judgments. Firstly, at the policy level, China's support for asset prices is relatively clear. On one hand, the government continues to introduce policies supporting consumption and technological innovation, directly benefiting related sectors; on the other hand, the orientation of fiscal and monetary policy at the macro level is also quite proactive. Early this year, the central bank has already signaled relatively clear policy intentions, not only launching a package of support measures but also indicating room for further easing this year, which provides important support for market expectations.
Secondly, from a fundamental perspective, the Chinese economy overall remains stable. We have raised our China GDP growth forecast for this year to 4.6%, and the trend of corporate earnings recovery is continuing. Taking MSCI China as an example, market expectations for corporate profit growth this year are around 8%, approaching double-digit growth rates, which remains quite attractive globally.
Thirdly, from valuation and capital allocation angles, Chinese assets are currently at relatively low levels. Against the backdrop of high US stock valuations and limited upside potential, there is a possibility of future global capital reallocation. Simultaneously, as the US dollar enters a rate-cutting cycle, a trend of some capital flowing out of dollar-denominated assets is expectable. From a horizontal comparison perspective, overall Asia-Pacific equity valuations are lower than those in Europe and the US, while Chinese stock valuations are lower than the Asia-Pacific average, making them distinctly attractive from a valuation standpoint.
Furthermore, China's current interest rate levels remain low, and the scale of household savings is substantial. In a low-interest-rate environment, some funds have an incentive to flow out of low-return assets like deposits and shift towards risk assets to enhance yields, which also provides a potential source of incremental funding for the stock market.
From an asset allocation perspective, the correlation of Chinese assets with major global markets has been relatively low over the past period. With rising geopolitical uncertainties and high asset correlations in European and American markets, Chinese assets possess certain diversification and hedging value, which is one of the key reasons overseas investors consider allocating to China.
We are overweight Chinese equities. The Chinese economy is in a transition phase, with growth drivers gradually shifting from traditional infrastructure and exports towards consumption and technological innovation. Based on this trend, we are relatively optimistic about sectors such as technology, telecommunications, and healthcare. These areas not only align with the medium-to-long-term economic transition direction but have also received ongoing policy support.
Sina Finance: Besides being overweight Chinese stocks, what other noteworthy directions are there in the current wealth management market? Subberwal: Apart from being overweight Chinese equities, there are several other allocation directions in the Chinese wealth management market that are equally noteworthy. Firstly, in an environment of declining overall interest rates, how to enhance yields has become a core issue. Whether for Renminbi or US dollar assets, the return space for traditional fixed-income products is narrowing, significantly increasing the importance of structured products. Through structural design, these products can, to some extent, balance risk control and yield enhancement, offering the opportunity for relatively high returns even when the underlying price fluctuates within a range, thus possessing strong allocation value in the current environment.
Secondly, the division of labor between public funds and separately managed accounts is becoming clearer. Public funds remain essential basic tools in asset allocation, but due to limitations in strategy and concentration, it is difficult for some specific themes or medium-to-high-risk strategies to be fully expressed. Against this backdrop, attention to separately managed accounts is rising. Through separately managed accounts, more targeted allocations can be made for specific markets, sectors, or investment logics, providing more flexible investment tools for some high-net-worth and professional investors.
Thirdly, the role of alternative investments in asset allocation is strengthening. With returns from traditional assets constrained and market volatility increasing, alternative strategies—including infrastructure and utility assets, hedge funds, etc.—are gradually becoming choices for investors to diversify risk and enhance portfolio stability, as their return sources are relatively diverse and their correlation with traditional stocks and bonds is low.
Additionally, cross-border and multi-currency allocation remains a direction that cannot be overlooked in wealth management. Allocating to overseas public funds through compliant channels like QDII, combined with foreign exchange-related solutions, allows for more flexible asset allocation across different markets and currency cycles, providing certain hedging and diversification effects for the portfolio.
Renminbi time deposit rates are falling, reducing the opportunity cost of "deposit migration." Sina Finance: There is a view in the market about "bank deposits moving into the stock market," but the investment risks faced by deposits and investments are different. What is your take on this? Subberwal: Our primary focus is the client's risk tolerance. For clients with a certain level of risk tolerance who are also suitable for participating in relatively complex wealth management products, we provide corresponding product choices; at the same time, there is also a category of relatively conservative, safe wealth management products suitable for clients with lower risk tolerance.
Taking structured products as an example, such products often feature principal protection mechanisms. If clients wish to have the opportunity to earn returns significantly higher than deposits while controlling risk and protecting principal, structured products are a direction worth considering. On one hand, we rate the risk of products, and on the other hand, we also assess the risk profile of clients, achieving a reasonable match between the two on this basis.
Currently, if you look at Renminbi time deposit rates, they are generally at low levels, mostly around one percent and a bit. This means that if one opts for a principal-protected structured product, even in the worst-case scenario, the loss borne by the client is mainly reflected in forgoing this portion of the time deposit interest, making the opportunity cost relatively low;但同时，the product still offers the possibility of achieving higher returns.
A key focus of our business development this year is also related to the wave of maturing deposits. Deposit rates were relatively high three years ago, and many time deposits are maturing successively. With current Renminbi time deposit rates having fallen significantly, a considerable portion of these maturing funds may shift towards wealth management and investment products.
When advising clients, we still conduct a risk suitability assessment first, determining the proportion of fixed income to equities in the asset allocation based on the client's risk preference.
In terms of equity allocation, we offer both domestic and overseas stock-related investment options;而在固定收益领域，currently, domestic fixed-income products dominate. In the specific product recommendation and allocation process, we also collaborate with multiple fund companies, asset management companies, and other partners. For clients with high safety requirements, for whom capital preservation is the primary goal, we appropriately increase the proportion of fixed-income products and reduce the proportion of equity assets during allocation, aiming to provide returns slightly higher than deposits while controlling risk.
Sina Finance: Gold has risen significantly over the past year and has continued to climb since the start of this year. What is your view on the investment logic for gold? What is your general judgment on its trend this year? Subberwal: We have maintained a positive view on gold. As early as the earlier part of 2025, before the start of this current rally, we were already explicitly bullish on gold and recommended allocating a certain proportion of gold assets in investment portfolios. Specifically, we believe a proportion of 7% to 8% of the total asset allocation is appropriate for gold, whether through ETFs, funds, related index products, or holding physical gold, all of which can serve as allocation tools. Practical results have also shown that this allocation recommendation has delivered relatively ideal investment outcomes for clients.
At the current stage, we still maintain our overweight view on gold and believe that a 7% to 8% allocation ratio remains reasonable in an investment portfolio. Our latest analysis still recommends being overweight gold, and we have raised our 3-month and 12-month target prices for gold to $4,850 per ounce and $5,350 per ounce, respectively.
In terms of driving factors, the rise in gold prices is primarily fueled by multiple factors: firstly, the persistent existence of geopolitical risks; secondly, increased policy uncertainty in the US, with policy orientations showing fluctuations; thirdly, a general weakening trend of the US dollar; fourthly, continued gold purchases by central banks worldwide, pushing up the allocation proportion of gold in official reserves. Additionally, there is a certain "buying on the rise, not on the fall" behavior among individual investors, coupled with demand for physical gold, providing further support for gold prices.
By Sina Finance's Feng Saiqi
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