David Wilson, Head of Commodities Strategy at BNP Paribas, stated that new geopolitical uncertainties—including former U.S. President Donald Trump's attempt to acquire Greenland and threats to impose tariffs on eight European nations—coupled with concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence, could drive gold prices to $5,000 per ounce sooner than anticipated. Conversely, the alleviation of physical supply mismatches is expected to cause silver prices to retreat swiftly after reaching $100 per ounce.
Regarding gold, Wilson commented, "Gold thrives on uncertainty. We witnessed this last year—when gold prices repeatedly hit record highs—and we continue to see this dynamic at play now." "Currently, all the factors supporting gold prices are active. Back in November, we predicted that gold would eventually reach $5,000. At the time, that seemed like a rather bold forecast, but now, with gold already around $4,700 per ounce, the $5,000 mark appears within reach."
For silver, Wilson anticipates a correction, suggesting that even as silver continues to set new highs, the physical shortages that fueled its strong rally in 2025 are being resolved. Wilson noted that the physical silver market is "certainly easing, with lease rates falling significantly, so these issues appear to be dissipating." He added that silver is a much smaller and less liquid market than gold, and "once some speculative capital begins to take profits, we could see a fairly significant pullback."
Data shows that after a stunning rally in 2025, both gold and silver have continued their upward trajectory into 2026, repeatedly setting new record highs. At the time of writing, spot gold was up 1.55% to $4,836.86 per ounce, having touched an intraday high of $4,844.39; spot silver, however, fell 0.43% to $94.19 per ounce, after reaching an intraday peak of $95.518.
It is worth noting that major financial institutions remain optimistic about gold. An analyst team at ANZ stated that market geopolitical turmoil and a safe-haven backdrop should continue to bolster global demand for gold. The analysts pointed out that a combination of geopolitical tensions, globally accommodative monetary policies, rising U.S. debt burdens, and heightened market concerns about Fed independence will collectively support gold prices breaking through the $5,000 per ounce level in the second half of the year.
Goldman Sachs indicated that, driven by both robust structural demand—particularly sustained large-scale gold purchases by emerging market central banks—and cyclical factors such as potential Fed rate cuts, gold prices could climb to approximately $4,900 per ounce by December 2026. An analyst team at J.P. Morgan forecasts that gold prices could average around $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026.
Citi holds an even more aggressive bullish outlook for precious metals, stating it expects silver prices to surge to $100 per ounce in the near term and anticipates gold breaking above $5,000 within the next three months. Citi cited deteriorating global geopolitics, uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and currency values under a potential Trump administration, physical gold and silver shortages, and threats to Fed independence as key supports for its forecast amidst an unprecedented high-price trend.
In a bull scenario, Citi's analyst team raised its 0-3 month gold price target from $4,200 to $5,000 per ounce and significantly increased its silver target from $62 to $100 per ounce.
BMO Capital Markets holds a different view on silver than Citi. The bank's commodity analysts warned that shifting supply and demand dynamics suggest silver's outperformance relative to gold may be difficult to sustain. The bank noted in a research report, "Although geopolitical uncertainty and demand as a 'meme investment' could further depress the gold-to-silver ratio in the short term, we forecast a gradually widening physical silver surplus, which will inevitably push the ratio higher in the coming years, continuing the long-term trend since the 1970s."
While investment demand has been the primary driver of the recent silver rally, BMO emphasized, "The key metric to watch more closely is the balance between silver consumption (industrial + jewelry + silverware) and supply (which is typically higher than consumption)." The bank specifically advised investors to monitor silver demand in the solar sector, suggesting that photovoltaic silver usage may have already peaked; until solid-state batteries are commercialized, silver supply will continue to grow, leading to its underperformance compared to gold.
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