On the first working day of 2026 (January 5th), the nonferrous metals sector continued its "nonferrous bull" trend. Huabao Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876), which aggregates leading companies in the nonferrous metals industry, saw its intraday gain reach 2.31% and is currently up 1.81%, once again refreshing its record high since listing! Notably, as of the time of writing, Huabao Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) attracted a real-time net subscription of 7.8 million shares. Furthermore, it received a net capital inflow of 78.89 million yuan over the preceding five trading days, reflecting strong investor confidence in the continued performance of the "nonferrous bull" market and active accumulation of positions.
Regarding constituent stocks, Zhongfu Industrial led the gains with an increase of over 8%. Hunan Silver and Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) rose more than 7%, while Shenhuo Group and Western Superconducting Technologies advanced over 4%. Stocks such as Tianshan Aluminum, Yunnan Aluminum, and Western Gold also followed the upward trend. Among the heavyweight components, Zijin Mining Group, China Molybdenum, Shandong Gold, and Northern Rare Earth rose more than 1%. Chart: Top 10 Gainers Among the Constituent Stocks of Huabao Nonferrous Metals ETF's Underlying Index.
CITIC Securities pointed out that in the early hours of January 3rd, the United States launched a large-scale military operation against Venezuela. This action by the US has drawn strong condemnation from the international community, intensifying global tensions. This is driving continued allocations by safe-haven capital and central banks into gold, thereby reinforcing the bull market pattern for precious metals. Regarding base metals, at the start of the new year, supply disruptions emerged in the copper sector due to mine worker strikes, exacerbating already tight supply constraints. The supply of electrolytic aluminum faces potential risks of production cuts, with LME aluminum率先 breaking above key psychological price levels. Examining specific segments: 1. Gold: Geopolitical conflicts add further impetus. The US launched a large-scale military operation against Venezuela in the early hours of the 3rd, raiding the capital Caracas and capturing President Maduro and his wife. Venezuela's estimated gold resource potential is around 3,500 tons, with 2024 gold production at 31 tons, placing it in the middle range globally. The new war instigated by the US heightens international tensions, boosting safe-haven allocations and sustaining central bank gold purchases, thereby strengthening the precious metals bull market. 2. Copper: New Year supply disruptions boost copper prices again. On January 2nd, Canadian miner Capstone announced that strikes would begin at its Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile on January 2nd. Although the mine's projected cathode copper production for 2025 is only 29,000-32,000 tons, any new supply risk added to an already tight market is likely to be factored into copper prices by investors. From a total global market perspective, a deficit of over 100,000 tons is projected for 2026. However, with anticipated US copper tariffs still pending, COMEX copper maintains a persistent premium over LME copper, with the latest spread remaining around $100/ton. This incentivizes traders to continue diverting refined copper to the US, creating a siphon effect that keeps copper supplies tight in non-US regions. The combination of the overall deficit and regional mismatches is driving copper prices to continuously刷新 record highs. 3. Aluminum: LME aluminum强势 breaks above $3,000. At the start of the new year, LME aluminum breached the $3,000 mark, reaching its highest level since 2022. News that Mozambique's Mozal aluminum smelter will transition to indefinite shutdown from March 15, 2026, has renewed market concerns about the stability of electrolytic aluminum supply. Global new electrolytic aluminum production for 2026 is forecast at 1.75 million tons, a growth rate of 2.35%. However, the risk of shutdowns due to potential power shortages in some regions prompts the market to assign a high premium to aluminum. Furthermore, aluminum demand from sectors like new energy vehicles, power grids, and robotics maintains strong growth, effectively offsetting negative growth in aluminum use from real estate and photovoltaics. As PMI rebounds in major overseas economies, boosting aluminum demand, global electrolytic aluminum demand in 2026 is expected to increase by 1.5-1.87 million tons, or 2%-2.5%. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and this balance is predicated on supply being threatened by power issues, making electrolytic aluminum prices prone to increases and difficult to fall, with profits likely to continue expanding at high levels.
In the industry's view, the exceptional performance of nonferrous metals this year is driven by a confluence of factors including the global capital expenditure cycle, manufacturing recovery, strengthening monetary attributes, and improved domestic macroeconomic expectations. The trend's persistence and duration may far exceed market expectations. Looking ahead, a sustained bull run for the nonferrous metals sector is a普遍 consensus among institutions. China International Capital Corporation (CICC) notes that 2026 could see a nonferrous metals bull market fueled by simultaneous upward momentum in monetary factors, demand, and supply. Zhongtai Securities is optimistic about a comprehensive nonferrous bull market, while CITIC Securities believes the bull market has potential to advance further. [The Nonferrous Metals Trend is Here, the "Super Cycle" is Unstoppable]
Different nonferrous metals exhibit varying景气度, rhythms, and drivers, making differentiation inevitable. For those bullish on nonferrous metals, a relatively straightforward approach to capturing the sector's beta is through broad coverage. Huabao Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) and its feeder funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141), which encompass leaders across the industry, provide comprehensive exposure to sectors like copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium. Compared to investing in a single metal sector, this offers risk diversification and is suitable as a component within an investment portfolio.
Risk Warning: The Nonferrous Metals Leaders ETF and its feeder funds passively track the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index. The index's base date is December 31, 2013, and it was launched on July 13, 2015. The index's performance over the past five complete years is: 2020, +35.84%; 2021, +35.89%; 2022, -19.22%; 2023, -10.43%; 2024, +2.96%. The index's constituent stocks are adjusted according to its compilation rules, and its past performance does not indicate future returns. The mention of index constituents herein is for illustrative purposes only; descriptions of individual stocks are not investment recommendations of any form and do not represent the holdings or trading动向 of any fund managed by the management company. The fund manager assesses this fund's risk等级 as R3-Medium Risk, suitable for Balanced (C3) and above investors. Suitability matching opinions should be based on the sales institution. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, and any form of expression) is for reference only. Investors are responsible for any independent investment decisions. Furthermore, any views, analysis, or predictions in this article do not constitute investment advice of any kind to readers, and no liability is accepted for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this content. Fund investment carries risks; past fund performance does not guarantee future results. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of this fund's performance. Invest cautiously in funds.
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