Central China Securities has reiterated its "Outperform" investment rating on the lithium battery industry, highlighting four key investment themes:
1. **Industry Leaders Benefit from Policy Support**: As anti-overcapacity measures and supportive policies take effect, leading companies in specialized segments are expected to gain advantages. Investors should focus on top players in the supply chain.
2. **Strong Growth in Energy Storage Demand**: Energy storage battery demand is surging beyond expectations, benefiting battery manufacturers and upstream material suppliers—particularly those specializing in lithium iron phosphate (LFP).
3. **Price Increases in Supply Chain Segments**: Certain segments of the supply chain are experiencing rising prices, presenting investment opportunities.
4. **Solid-State Battery Advancements**: Progress in solid-state battery technology and commercialization, especially through major industry milestones and product launches, warrants close attention.
**Sector Performance Rebounds, Outpacing Market Indices** In 2024, the lithium battery sector reported modest revenue growth of 0.14% but a 30.70% decline in net profit. However, in the first three quarters of 2025, revenue rose 12.81% and net profit surged 28.38%, signaling a recovery. The lithium battery index has climbed 79.34% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 by 63.25 percentage points.
**Robust Demand for Power and Energy Storage Batteries** From January to September 2025, global sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 14.48 million units, up 23.47% year-on-year, while global power battery installations hit 811.8 GWh, growing 34.70%. China’s new energy vehicle sales rose 32.41% to 12.91 million units, driven by policy incentives, improved cost-performance ratios, and a shift toward product-driven demand.
China’s combined power and other battery production reached 1,292.5 GWh, up 51.30%, with double-digit growth expected in 2026. Energy storage battery shipments soared 62.62% to 430 GWh in the first three quarters, with full-year growth projected above 75%, fueled by overseas demand and declining costs.
**Sector Growth to Continue** China dominates the global lithium battery market, with six firms among the top 10 power battery manufacturers, holding a 68.2% market share. In energy storage, China’s share exceeds 90%. Supply chain prices remain stable or slightly rising, with cobalt-related products and electrolytes seeing short-term spikes, while lithium carbonate prices have bottomed out.
Central China Securities forecasts sustained double-digit earnings growth for the sector in 2026, though performance will vary across segments.
**Risk Factors**: - Slower-than-expected global or domestic economic growth - Underperformance in new energy vehicle sales - Weak policy implementation - Intensified industry competition - Volatility in segment prices - Supply chain disruptions
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