Key Takeaways
Market research firm Counterpoint Technology predicts smartphone average selling prices (ASPs) will rise by 6.9% in 2026. The primary driver is higher memory chip costs, which are pushing up overall smartphone production expenses. Memory chips are critical hardware for AI data centers, and demand for these components is surging.
Counterpoint Technology noted in a report released this Tuesday that the memory chip shortage, fueled by AI industry expansion, could lead to higher smartphone prices and lower shipments in 2026. The firm forecasts a 2.1% year-on-year decline in global smartphone shipments for 2026, revising earlier expectations of flat or marginal growth. It’s important to note that shipments—measured as devices sent to retail channels—differ from end-user sales but serve as a key demand indicator.
Meanwhile, Counterpoint has raised its 2026 smartphone ASP growth projection from 3.6% to 6.9%. This adjustment stems from semiconductor supply chain bottlenecks and shortages of specific chips, both of which are driving up component costs.
The ongoing global expansion of AI data centers has significantly boosted demand for Nvidia’s systems, which rely on components supplied by SK Hynix and Samsung—the world’s top memory chip manufacturers. However, a critical component called dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) is essential not only for AI data centers but also for smartphones. Due to tight supply, DRAM prices have surged this year.
Counterpoint reports that since early 2024, the bill of materials (BOM) cost for budget smartphones (priced below $200) has risen by 20%–30%. Mid-range and premium smartphone BOM costs have increased by 10%–15%.
The firm warns, "By Q2 2026, memory chip prices could climb another 40%, pushing smartphone BOM costs up by an additional 8% to over 15% from current elevated levels." These rising component costs will ultimately be passed on to consumers, driving higher smartphone ASPs.
Ms. Huang, Counterpoint’s research director, stated in the report, "Apple and Samsung are best positioned to weather the challenges in coming quarters. Other brands, however, will face tougher choices between market share and profitability." She added that Chinese smartphone makers focused on mid- to low-end segments will bear the brunt of this pressure.
Counterpoint anticipates some manufacturers may downgrade components—such as camera modules, displays, and audio hardware—or reuse older parts. Additionally, brands are likely to promote incentives steering consumers toward higher-priced models.
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