CLSA has issued a research report stating that ZTO Express (02057, ZTO.US) reported an 11% year-on-year increase in Q3 revenue and a 7% rise in adjusted net profit. The adjusted net profit per parcel was approximately RMB 0.27, improving from RMB 0.21 in Q2. The firm remains optimistic about ZTO's core cost per parcel, which increased by only RMB 0.02 due to the operation of new transit centers. CLSA maintains an "Outperform" rating, with a target price of HKD 152 for the Hong Kong-listed shares and USD 20 for the US-listed shares. The report highlights that industry policies against excessive competition are expected to continue, with regulators likely to enforce price floors to curb unhealthy price wars. Given ZTO's superior customer structure compared to peers, CLSA anticipates a rebound in the company's market share next year and has slightly raised its 2025 and 2026 net profit forecasts by 2%.
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