This Friday at 21:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the US December non-farm payrolls report. This is the first complete month's non-farm payrolls report unaffected by the US government shutdown, making it highly significant for guidance. The most closely watched data point in the report is the change in non-farm payrolls, with the previous figure at 64,000 and the forecast at 53,000, indicating a slightly pessimistic expectation. Historically, since May 2025, the US non-farm payrolls figure has remained low, even dipping into negative territory in some months. Regarding the impact of expectations on market movements, a weak non-farm payrolls figure may not significantly weigh on the US Dollar Index. However, if the data significantly exceeds expectations, it is highly likely to provide a substantial boost to the dollar. It is important to note that the November figure was revised down to -105,000; based on this revised data, a forecast of 53,000 appears relatively optimistic. However, given that the US government was shut down for half of November, the reliability of that month's data is questionable, and the positive effect from comparing December's data with November's is likely weak. The fact that the US labor market is weak has become a consensus; as long as the non-farm payrolls data does not show severe negative growth again, and the published figure is below 50,000, the impact on the US Dollar Index is expected to be relatively muted.
This Wednesday at 21:15, Automatic Data Processing Inc will release the US December ADP employment data. This data is known in the industry as the "small non-farm payrolls" and serves as a leading indicator for the performance of Friday's main report. The previous figure was -32,000, while the forecast is 45,000, indicating a relatively optimistic expectation. Since June of this year, the US ADP data has shown a pattern of alternating between positive and negative values. Given that the November reading was negative, the probability of achieving the December forecast of 45,000 is relatively high. In the long term, the US labor market remains weak and unstable; a single month of strong data is unlikely to effectively reverse the market's pessimistic expectations, so the impact of the December ADP data on boosting the US Dollar Index is expected to be limited.
This Wednesday at 18:00, Eurostat will release the Eurozone's December CPI year-on-year rate. The previous figure was 2.1%, with an expectation of 2%, indicating a slight anticipated decline. The Eurozone's December core CPI year-on-year rate had a previous figure of 2.4%, with the expectation being flat. A slight decline in the headline CPI while the core CPI remains unchanged suggests the market views price level fluctuations in the Eurozone during December as mild, without expecting drastic changes. Historically, from May to August 2025, the Eurozone's core inflation rate stabilized at 2.3%; from September to November of the same year, it stabilized at 2.4%. No major macroeconomic events significantly impacted the Eurozone in December, making it highly probable that the core CPI data will remain unchanged. On the day of the data release, if the final figure meets expectations, volatility in the euro is expected to be limited.
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