Gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange saw a session of gains after an initial surge on the 8th. The most active June 2026 contract rose by $11.70 to settle at $4,745 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.25%.
Earlier in the day, prices had climbed above the $4,800 per ounce level, reaching a peak of $4,888, driven by expectations of easing geopolitical tensions. However, the advance narrowed significantly during the midday session in New York. Despite short-term fluctuations, bullish sentiment continued to dominate the market.
The sudden de-escalation of Middle East tensions, following a ceasefire agreement involving the US, Israel, and Iran, along with the restoration of safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, rapidly alleviated market fears over potential energy supply disruptions. This led to a significant rebound in risk appetite across global capital markets. In commodity markets, international oil prices fell sharply on the 8th, while precious and industrial metals generally staged strong recoveries.
However, during the New York afternoon session, renewed uncertainty regarding the prospects of US-Iran negotiations put pressure on precious metals, causing prices to retreat from their intraday highs. On the news front, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, stated via social media on the 8th that negotiations between Iran and the US had not yet commenced and that three of the ten ceasefire terms proposed by Iran had already been violated.
Influenced by geopolitical developments, March of this year was gold's worst performing month in nearly 13 years. However, institutional analysis suggests the sell-off was driven by deleveraging and liquidity dynamics stemming from the military conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. Nevertheless, given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, gold prices still face near-term volatility risks.
In its latest commentary on the gold market, the World Gold Council noted that while some positive signs have emerged in the gold market, short-term risks persist. The council further indicated that if conflict leads to oil prices remaining above $100 per barrel for an extended period, it could result in intensified cross-asset deleveraging, a plunge in yields, or potential mobilization of gold by official sector institutions. Therefore, although fundamentals remain supportive for gold, short-term price movements may be influenced more by liquidity demands triggered by conflict rather than solely by macroeconomic signals.
In other developments, a recent survey of central banks managing over $9.5 trillion in gold reserves revealed that despite gold prices hitting a record high early in the year, followed by increased volatility and the sharpest correction in decades, this has not deterred central banks from continuing to steadily increase their official gold reserves.
The survey, conducted by Central Banking Publications and sponsored by HSBC, polled 101 central banks. It showed that 72.6% of respondents invest in gold, up from 69.4% in last year's survey. Meanwhile, 15 central banks, or 15.8%, stated they are currently purchasing gold, with an additional three indicating they would consider increasing their official gold reserves within the next 5 to 10 years. Only eight central banks, or 8.4%, expressed no interest in investing in gold. Furthermore, the 60 central banks providing forecasts projected an average gold price of $5,354 per ounce by the end of 2026.
Mirroring gold's trajectory, silver prices also experienced a rally and subsequent retreat on the 8th. The May silver futures contract closed up by 109.5 cents, settling at $74.245 per ounce, a gain of 1.50%. During the session, silver reached an intraday high of $77.800 per ounce.
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