Gold Market Review and Key Insights: Last week, London spot gold closed at $5,278 per ounce (up 3.3% week-on-week), while domestic AU9999 gold finished at ¥1,143 per gram (up 3.2% week-on-week).
Over the weekend, Middle East tensions intensified abruptly, showing signs of short-term escalation. Starting February 28, Israel, in coordination with the United States, launched a large-scale attack on Iran, resulting in the deaths of Iran's supreme leader and several key officials. Iran subsequently carried out a significant military retaliation. Additionally, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a passage for approximately 30% of global seaborne crude oil, triggering a sharp rise in international oil prices.
The impact of this Middle East escalation on gold can be analyzed through three key mechanisms:
First, safe-haven demand directly boosts gold prices. Geopolitical risks are a natural catalyst for gold. The U.S.-Iran conflict has shifted from an "anticipated risk" to "actual military confrontation," leading to a surge in market避险 sentiment. Historical data shows that major conflicts in the Middle East often strongly catalyze gold prices; during the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 1979 Iranian Revolution, gold prices surged severalfold.
Second, the inflation transmission pathway reinforces gold's anti-inflation properties. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz will drive up oil prices, which in turn will fuel broader inflation expectations through energy cost channels. Rising crude oil prices will affect downstream chemical industry chains, increasing production and manufacturing costs. In an inflationary environment, gold's role as a store of value becomes more prominent.
Third, the long-term de-dollarization trend is further solidified. After the freezing of Russian foreign reserves in 2022, global central banks reassessed the safety of U.S. dollar assets, leading to a notable increase in gold purchases. The direct U.S. involvement and use of force in this conflict may accelerate doubts about dollar credibility, prompting continued central bank gold accumulation as a reserve asset.
Looking ahead, after recent fluctuations and adjustments, gold prices are showing signs of stabilization, with volatility noticeably declining. The current geopolitical conflict provides a new catalyst for gold.
In the medium to long term, macroeconomic factors supporting gold remain intact, including: sustained gold purchases by central banks amid de-dollarization, erosion pressure on the long-term credibility of the U.S. dollar due to U.S. "fiscal dominance" policies, and systemic risks from fragmented global geopolitics. Gold's value in hedging against "international order collapse risks" and "sovereign currency risks" continues to be evident.
Key signals to monitor for gold investment in the coming week include: (1) Developments in the Middle East situation; (2) U.S. February employment data; (3) Gold purchases by the People's Bank of China.
Related Products: - Gold ETF (518880) / Link A (000216) / Link C (000217) - Gold Equity ETF (159321)
Comparison of RMB-Denominated Gold and International Gold Price Trends: Data Source: Wind, Huaan Fund, as of March 1, 2026.
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