On March 30, Chinese stock markets showed a mixed performance, with trading volume increasing to nearly 1.93 trillion yuan compared to the previous Friday. Overseas, the March US PMI data indicated a divergence between the manufacturing and service sectors. Manufacturing remained relatively stable, while the service sector faced significant pressure. Soaring energy prices due to geopolitical conflicts have reignited inflationary pressures, with increased operational costs now being passed on to sales, leading to higher average selling prices for businesses. In response to cost pressures and demand uncertainty, companies are seeking to cut expenses and control labor costs, resulting in a cooling job market. Concerns about stagflation risks are rising in international markets.
Domestically, price increases have driven a recovery in profit growth for upstream and some midstream industries from January to February. Strong export growth has also boosted revenue growth in export-related sectors. However, aside from the computer and communications industries, downstream sectors generally face profit pressures. In the short term, stagflation-like trading patterns are likely to persist, making defensive strategies a preferable choice. For equities, a portfolio combining "dividend low-volatility and large-cap growth" stocks may be considered. From a medium to long-term perspective, recurring geopolitical conflicts could accelerate global capital's allocation towards safe-haven assets. China's relatively safer environment may attract cross-border capital investments.
On the news front, former US President Donald Trump stated in an interview with the Financial Times on March 29 that indirect negotiations between the US and Iran via Pakistan were "progressing well," and Iran had agreed to "most of the content" in a "15-point ceasefire plan." However, he also admitted that his ultimate goal was to "seize Iran's oil" and did not rule out occupying Iran's key oil export hub, Kharg Island. This optimistic signal from Trump contrasts with Iran's previous strong denials, reflecting both sides' willingness to ease tensions while fundamental disagreements remain. Investors should be cautious of volatility risks due to potential negotiation setbacks. For A-shares, a decline in geopolitical risk premiums may help stabilize market sentiment, but Trump's强硬 stance indicates that conflicts are not entirely resolved.
On March 28, data from China's National Medical Products Administration showed that the total value of outbound licensing (BD) deals for innovative drugs exceeded $60 billion in the first three months of the year, nearly half of the $135.7 billion total for all of 2025. As of March 27, 10 innovative drugs had been approved in 2026, eight of which were domestically developed. This surge in BD deal value confirms that China's innovative drug sector has transitioned from "imitation-innovation" to "original innovation" on the global stage. Multinational pharmaceutical companies are increasingly sourcing from China, driven by an optimal balance between cost and efficacy. BD revenue is gradually improving the financial structures of innovative drug companies. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, sectors like innovative drugs, biopharmaceuticals, and CROs are expected to benefit from this systemic trend.
On March 30, China's State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on further implementing the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, emphasizing the use of various measures to curb "internal卷-style" competition in key industries such as platform economy, photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles. This notice signals a shift from verbal warnings to institutionalized regulation of cutthroat competition. These industries have long faced issues like low-price subsidies,恶性 competition, and payment delays, which severely squeeze profit margins. The policy aims to guide industries from "price wars" to "value-based competition." While it may short-term pressure companies reliant on subsidies for expansion, it is expected to benefit leading firms with technological barriers and brand advantages in the long run.
In market performance, the three major A-share indices closed mixed on March 30. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24% to 3,923.29 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 13,726.09 points. The ChiNext Index declined 0.68% to 3,273.36 points, and the STAR 100 Index dropped 0.20% to 1,511.51 points. Among sectors, nonferrous metals, building materials, and communications led gains, rising 1.84%, 1.67%, and 1.31%, respectively. Utilities, home appliances, and power equipment were among the top decliners, falling 2.97%, 1.49%, and 1.25%, respectively. Overall, 2,828 stocks advanced, while 2,276 declined.
Trading volume reached 1.93 trillion yuan, up from the previous session. The balance of margin lending and short selling stood at 2.61 trillion yuan as of the last trading day, down from the prior close. MACD golden cross signals have formed, indicating positive momentum for certain stocks.
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