As the year draws to a close, the highly anticipated Central Economic Work Conference is set to convene. In 2025, despite drastic changes in the external environment and heightened uncertainties, China's economy has continued to forge ahead against headwinds, with its annual GDP expected to reach 140 trillion yuan, further consolidating its position as the world's second-largest economy. Reflecting on the journey, the achievements have been hard-won; looking forward, confidence remains steadfast. The foundation of China's economic stability continues to strengthen, its momentum for progress keeps accumulating, and its positive trends become increasingly evident. This lays a solid groundwork for a strong start to the "16th Five-Year Plan" and injects stability into the world economy amid complex transformations.
To assess China's economy, one must first examine its "fundamentals." In the first three quarters, GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In October, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate stood at 5.1%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year, indicating overall stability in employment and prices. By the end of October, foreign exchange reserves climbed to $3.3433 trillion. These key macroeconomic indicators operating within a reasonable range reflect China's sustained and stable economic recovery.
This stability stems from robust comprehensive strength—China has long been the world's largest manufacturing nation, with grain production surpassing 1.4 trillion jin, and its economic aggregate continuously breaking new thresholds. A complete industrial system and the advantages of a vast domestic market serve as the "ballast" against turbulence. Moreover, this stability is bolstered by precise and effective macroeconomic policies. The Central Committee has adhered to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, strengthening counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. Timely and proactive policies to stabilize growth, promote development, and mitigate risks have effectively consolidated the foundation for recovery.
While "stability" is the foundation, "progress" is the direction. Driven by innovation, China's economic transformation is accelerating, enhancing resilience. Breakthroughs in core technologies—from the release of next-generation ultra-high-speed real-time oscilloscopes to the approval of the world's largest skin-stretching machine—highlight the innovative backbone of Chinese manufacturing. The value-added of equipment manufacturing accounts for over 35% of large-scale industries, while strategic emerging industries like integrated circuits play an increasingly supportive role. The share of green electricity in total power consumption is steadily rising, optimizing the energy structure. The core industrial scale of industrial internet exceeds 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting coordinated improvements in the economy's "gold content," "green content," and "intelligent content," accelerating the formation of new productive forces.
Policymakers are focusing on removing bottlenecks and optimizing circulation. Measures include deploying ultra-long-term special bonds to support key projects, enhancing supply-demand alignment for consumer goods, and reducing logistics costs. These efforts aim to foster a virtuous cycle of "consumption upgrading—industrial upgrading—supply-demand balance," making domestic circulation smoother and amplifying the magnetism of China's "global market."
Looking ahead, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee outlined economic priorities, emphasizing "resolutely achieving annual economic and social development goals" and mapping out a strategic vision for the next five years. It reaffirmed "economic construction as the central task" and called for "making high-quality development the theme of economic and social progress," sending clear and resolute policy signals. Reforms are deepening, targeting institutional barriers through measures like market-based allocation of production factors, scenario innovation, and major infrastructure projects.
The construction of a modern industrial system is prioritized, with clear strategic tasks such as strengthening the real economy, advancing rural revitalization, and balancing development with security, charting the course for Chinese modernization. High-level opening-up remains unwavering, as foreign firms continue to invest in China, and international expos like the China International Import Expo and Canton Fair yield fruitful results, showcasing the strong appeal of China's market and its commitment to openness. These efforts create favorable conditions for a strong start to the "16th Five-Year Plan."
Those who discern trends are wise; those who master them prevail. Currently, China's economic recovery and long-term upward trajectory remain unchanged, with opportunities outweighing challenges. The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference will undoubtedly chart the course for future economic development and foster consensus. By analyzing economic trends comprehensively, dialectically, and with a long-term perspective, and by implementing the conference's directives with confidence and determination, China's economy will navigate the path of high-quality development, setting sail toward a brighter chapter in the opening year of the "16th Five-Year Plan."
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