Amazon Could Be Worth $3 Trillion in Three Years, Analyst Says

Barrons2021-04-14

Amazon is going to get bigger—maybe a lot bigger. In a research note on Tuesday, Jefferies analyst Brent Thill lays out a case that Amazon (Ticker: AMZN) can reach $5,700 a share over the next three ...

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要拼才会赢哥
2021-04-14
要拼才会赢哥
To the Mars ?
Vilianty Luo
2021-04-14
Vilianty Luo
Amazing.
- Vilianty Luo:
  like and comment
XiaTian
2021-04-14
XiaTian
Power up to $T
JimmyChua
2021-04-14
JimmyChua
Regulatory risks too

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He cautions that overall revenue growth will be a key driver of stock performance, and that the shares could be range-bound until moving past what he warns will be a tough June quarter comparison. But for the long haul, he’s all in.\nThe analyst asserts that Amazon Web Services is the company’s most valuable business, and one that is well-positioned for further strong growth. He thinks AWS could be worth $1.2 trillion in three years, as more corporate computing workloads shift to the cloud. (Barron’s notes there are only four companies with market caps higher than that: Amazon itself, Apple,Microsoft and Alphabet.)\nIn a finding that could surprise some investors, Thill thinksthe company’s advertising businesscould be worth more than $600 billion in three years. “As Amazon becomes an increasingly important channel for [consumer-packaged goods] companies, we believe a portion of their spending will shift toward search and product placement,” he writes. “In addition, we think Amazon has the opportunity to expand advertising further in international and new channels like Prime Video.”\nAs for the core retail business, the analyst estimates the value three years out at $1 trillion, about $700 billion of that for the third-party seller business. “[Amazon]Primeadoption and a broader shift to e-commerce have driven an acceleration in growth,” he writes. “We believe the length of the pandemic has served to engrain consumers’ increased reliance on e-commerce.”\nThill is careful to say that his sum-of-the-parts analysis is simply illustrative and doesn’t reflect his official price target. But he adds that viewing Amazon over a longer time period “helps provide perspective in the face of near-term disruptions/volatility from the pandemic.” He also thinks Amazon’s discount to its underlying asset value can narrow over time. 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