Domestic refined oil product prices are set for their second reduction of the year.
Following a price adjustment on May 21st, international market crude oil prices experienced volatility, initially declining before recently showing some recovery. The average price over the ten working days preceding this adjustment was lower than the average over the ten working days preceding the last adjustment.
In line with the changes in international oil prices, starting from 24:00 on June 4th, the prices for standard-grade gasoline and diesel in China will be reduced by 525 yuan and 505 yuan per ton, respectively.
This adjustment marks the eleventh price change for domestic refined oil products in 2026. The pattern for the year's adjustments will now be eight increases, two decreases, and one hold.
According to calculations by Longzhong Information, this price adjustment translates to a reduction of 0.40 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.43 yuan per liter for 0-grade diesel.
For a typical private car with a 50-liter fuel tank, the cost to fill the tank will decrease by approximately 20 yuan.
Monitoring by the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center shows that during this latest pricing cycle (from 24:00 on May 21st to 24:00 on June 4th), international oil prices initially fell before rising.
During the cycle, influenced primarily by the evolving situation between the US and Iran, international oil prices fluctuated downward before increasing, with the average price for this cycle being lower than the previous one.
In late May, positive signals from US-Iran negotiations continually emerged, strengthening market expectations for a de-escalation of geopolitical conflict. This drove the price of Brent crude futures down to around $92 per barrel.
Entering June, US-Iran talks stalled again, and clashes on multiple fronts heightened geopolitical risks, causing international oil prices to turn upward.
Simultaneously, ongoing disputes between the US and Iran over navigation rights in the Strait of Hormuz are causing obstructions in the crude oil supply chain.
Furthermore, a significant reduction in crude supply from Gulf countries and global inventories dropping to low levels are expected to continue supporting international oil prices.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that since late February, supply from Gulf nations has decreased by 14 million barrels per day, accounting for about 15% of global daily consumption.
Goldman Sachs estimates that by the end of May, total global crude inventories had fallen to a level equivalent to 98 days of demand, breaching the industry's "100-day warning line."
Analysis from the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center suggests that the evolution of the US-Iran situation is the core factor influencing international oil price trends.
Recently, Iran indicated a suspension of dialogue with the US and plans to completely blockade the Strait of Hormuz, while the US claimed an agreement could be reached "within a week."
The increased uncertainty surrounding the negotiations is expected to amplify short-term volatility in international oil prices, necessitating close attention to subsequent developments.
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