Airbnb Stock Looks Like the Next Covid Play to Stumble, Analyst Warns

Barrons2022-02-09

Airbnb could be the next Covid-era darling to suffer from the ongoing deflation in growth-stock multiples.At least, that’s the view of BTIG analyst Jake Fuller, who cut his rating on Airbnb (ticker: ...

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Comments

KDL
2022-02-09
KDL
Not sure. We shall see on earnings.
Thomas9413
2022-02-09
Thomas9413
Great
Chchong
2022-02-09
Chchong
Good
rhengheng
2022-02-09
rhengheng
Indeed
PiggyBubbles
2022-02-09
PiggyBubbles
Hi
LeeWan
2022-02-09
LeeWan
Ok

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The company declined to comment.</p><p>As he lays out in a research note, Fuller has become concerned that Airbnb could be the latest stock in a long line of Covid-era winners to hit the skids amid a combination of shrinking growth-company multiples, and the impact of a reopening economy.</p><p>Fuller writes that he has concerns that current Street revenue estimates are too high—and he worries that the company’s relatively lofty valuation could contract if estimates ratchet lower. “With growth slowing and numbers likely to come down, we worry about the potential for multiple compression,” he writes. “We saw exactly that for the Covid winners last year when they hit the comp wall and growth slowed.”</p><p>Fuller adds that his main concern is “aggressive post-Omicon expectations” on the Street—his forecast for room nights for the last nine months of the year is about 11% below consensus. For the year’s final nine months, he’s modeling a 14% increase in room nights, with the Street at 28%.</p><p>And he asserts that Airbnb’s double-digit revenue multiple—12 times his lower-than-consensus 2023 forecast—might not be sustainable when other online-travel stocks have pulled back to mid-single-digit multiples. Fuller sees 2022 revenue of $6.7 billion, well below the consensus estimate at at $7.3 billion.</p><p>Airbnb will report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 15.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbnb Stock Looks Like the Next Covid Play to Stumble, Analyst Warns</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbnb Stock Looks Like the Next Covid Play to Stumble, Analyst Warns\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-09 14:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/airbnb-stock-downgrade-covid-51644347056?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Airbnb could be the next Covid-era darling to suffer from the ongoing deflation in growth-stock multiples.At least, that’s the view of BTIG analyst Jake Fuller, who cut his rating on Airbnb (ticker: ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/airbnb-stock-downgrade-covid-51644347056?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ABNB":"爱彼迎"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/airbnb-stock-downgrade-covid-51644347056?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109661151","content_text":"Airbnb could be the next Covid-era darling to suffer from the ongoing deflation in growth-stock multiples.At least, that’s the view of BTIG analyst Jake Fuller, who cut his rating on Airbnb (ticker: ABNB) stock on Tuesday to Neutral from Buy.Despite the downgrade, Airbnb stock on Tuesday rose 2.8% to $162.26. The company declined to comment.As he lays out in a research note, Fuller has become concerned that Airbnb could be the latest stock in a long line of Covid-era winners to hit the skids amid a combination of shrinking growth-company multiples, and the impact of a reopening economy.Fuller writes that he has concerns that current Street revenue estimates are too high—and he worries that the company’s relatively lofty valuation could contract if estimates ratchet lower. “With growth slowing and numbers likely to come down, we worry about the potential for multiple compression,” he writes. “We saw exactly that for the Covid winners last year when they hit the comp wall and growth slowed.”Fuller adds that his main concern is “aggressive post-Omicon expectations” on the Street—his forecast for room nights for the last nine months of the year is about 11% below consensus. For the year’s final nine months, he’s modeling a 14% increase in room nights, with the Street at 28%.And he asserts that Airbnb’s double-digit revenue multiple—12 times his lower-than-consensus 2023 forecast—might not be sustainable when other online-travel stocks have pulled back to mid-single-digit multiples. Fuller sees 2022 revenue of $6.7 billion, well below the consensus estimate at at $7.3 billion.Airbnb will report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 15.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9096236713,"gmtCreate":1644393535603,"gmtModify":1676533920778,"author":{"id":"3558097748623340","authorId":"3558097748623340","name":"LeeWan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88769849d29a340fce73355c249755a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558097748623340","authorIdStr":"3558097748623340"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096236713","repostId":1109661151,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":69,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1109661151"}