Oil prices advanced as a peace agreement between the United States and Iran remains distant, leaving the critical Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and continuing to disrupt global energy transportation. Brent crude rose 3.4%, settling near $108 per barrel, while WTI settled around $102. US President Donald Trump stated that Iran's capitulation is "only a matter of time." Just a day earlier, Trump described the fragile ceasefire between Tehran and Washington as "on serious life support." The ceasefire, maintained since early April, has held despite a recent series of escalations in violence, including attacks on vessels. According to informed sources, Iran responded to Trump's peace proposal by demanding the US lift its maritime blockade, ease sanctions, and allow Iran to retain a degree of control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz. "With the latest round of talks breaking down, the risk is that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drags on, and as temporary factors helping to ease the shortage disappear, the spot market will tighten again," said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Chief Analyst at A/S Global Risk Management. Satellite imagery indicates that oil shipments from Iran's main export terminals appear to have stalled over the past few days, marking the longest such pause since the conflict began. The country's oil exports are a vital source of economic revenue and remain a significant component of global energy supply. Although there are few signs of an immediate resolution to the war, indicators measuring market strength have weakened in recent trading sessions as refineries reduce purchases. On Tuesday, the Brent crude prompt time spread showed a contango of nearly $4 per barrel, down from nearly $10 per barrel early last month. Contango typically signals a tightening market. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast on Tuesday that US crude oil production will surge to a record 14.1 million barrels per day by 2027, as some domestic producers take advantage of higher prices to increase drilling activity. The agency now expects global demand to grow by only 200,000 barrels per day this year, lower than its previous estimate of 1.2 million barrels per day. The WTI June futures contract rose 4.2%, settling at $102.18 per barrel. The Brent July futures contract settled 3.4% higher at $107.77 per barrel.
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