On the previous trading day (November 4), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.16% to 3,686.17 points, the Shenzhen Component Index climbed 4.22% to 11,335.69 points, and the ChiNext Index surged 6.40% to 2,544.73 points; combined turnover across the two markets reached 2.037694 trillion yuan; 4,667 stocks advanced while 779 declined, with 118 hitting the daily limit up and 1 hitting the limit down.
Guosheng Securities believes that the 10-year government bond yield breaking below 1.6% does not signal the end of the bond market rally, and there is still room for further declines at year-end and early next year; Guotou Securities holds that the ChiNext pullback has reached the 60% extreme of its prior range gain, and conditions for a major rebound are accumulating; Guotai Haitong argues that the new policy on completed-home sales will hit investment in the short term but promote industry stability over the long run; Huafu Securities notes that quantum technology ranks first among six major future industries; and Sinolink Securities says wind power tender volume and pricing point to a turning point in 2027.
Guosheng Securities: Fixed Income | 10-Year Treasury Breaks 1.6%, Trend Not Over
On the morning of November 4, 2026, the 10-year government bond yield officially broke through the 1.6% integer mark. As of the morning session on November 4, the 10-year government bond yield formally breached the key 1.6% threshold, having effectively fallen to near previous lows; when accounting for tax effects, the after-tax yield has in fact already broken below the prior low. After this breach, how the market will subsequently move—whether it will adjust upward or continue its downward trend—has become the focus of attention in the bond market. Breaking through a key level does not mean the rally is over; rather, it means the trend is continuing, and there is still room for further rate declines at year-end and early next year.
From historical experience, after rates break through integer thresholds, the bond market does not necessarily adjust; rather, it depends on the fundamentals, liquidity conditions, and supply-demand dynamics of the bond market at the time. At present, government bond supply has declined somewhat, while allocation demand from small and medium-sized banks and insurers remains strong, and allocation-oriented institutions may increase their positions at year-end. After the anchor shift, the central level of the interest rate system has declined, and combined with recent weakness in the equity market, the central bank's tolerance for falling rates may have increased. In short, rates breaking through the key 1.6% level does not mean the end of the bond market rally. Under current conditions, the downward rate trend is likely to continue, especially at year-end and early next year. We believe the 10-year government bond yield still has 10-15bp of downside room, with 1.50% potentially in sight; the 30-year government bond yield could fall to 1.80%-1.85%; and interbank negotiable certificates of deposit could decline to 1.30%-1.35%.
Guotou Securities: Strategy | The Ship Will Eventually Reach Shore
What needs to be acknowledged now is that the ChiNext Index has cumulatively retreated more than 44% since peaking at 4,380.41 points on June 26 (as of early November), significantly deeper than the maximum drawdowns of the 2021 "Mao Index" and the 2022 "Ning Combination," and has largely exceeded the cognitive scope of our M-top framework. First, high US Treasury yields have caused global AI technology capital to narrow its focus to core US AI leaders. On October 7, the 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.36% intraday and the 30-year touched 5.73%, both hitting their highest levels since 2002. Currently, the deadlock of long-end rates being "easy to rise but hard to fall" has shown substantive easing: on October 28, the Federal Reserve's FOMC voted 10-2 to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from its high to around 4.9% by October 30, down about 36 basis points for the month, but the warning of tightening liquidity has not been eliminated. Second, controversies in the AI technology industry persist, and 2028 remains unclear for now; this high degree of uncertainty itself creates a valuation discount. The ROIC of the five major cloud vendors has declined, 2028 capital expenditure growth is expected to fall to the 20%-30% range, trailing 12-month free cash flow has dropped from $192.4 billion to $125.9 billion, and Amazon and Oracle have turned negative. Under current plans, 2028 net leverage would be only 0.6 times with interest coverage of 14 times, but the commercial closed loop requires hard evidence; the uncertainty between a hard brake and a soft landing is itself the discount. Third, market-wide capital has concentrated extremely in A-share technology, with absolute-return funds forming a second passive selling channel. In 2026Q2, active long-only public fund TMT holdings once reached 61.9%, still 54.7% in Q3, with electronics overweight at 18.0% and telecommunications at 8.8%, both at the 98.3rd percentile since 2012; insurance and fixed-income-plus funds passively reduced positions after net value drawdowns hit the 3% and 5% risk-control lines, and margin financing balances fell to about 2.30 trillion yuan, a decline of 20%.
So when will the market bottom? In our weekly report "Bottom Signals," we proposed that a round of extreme adjustment is roughly 60% of the prior range gain, with an adjustment cycle of 16-19 weeks. In 2015, the ChiNext Index retreated 62.8% over about 14 weeks; from end-2021 to April 2022, it retreated 59.9% over about 20 weeks; the current round has lasted about 18 calendar weeks since the June 26, 2026 peak, and the retracement of the range gain has reached the 60% extreme level. The ChiNext PE is about 26 times, already close to the level when the 2024 September 24 rally began. In terms of both time and space, it is in an oversold state within historical experience ranges. Looking ahead, macro constraints are easing and industrial catalysts are gradually being verified, and conditions for a major rebound are also accumulating. This round's chip clearing has been slow; in 26Q3, active public fund TMT holdings fell from 61.9% to 54.7%, mainly due to market value declines rather than active selling. The 15.5% rebound in early August is better viewed as a bounce during a sharp decline rather than a second top; if macro constraint easing and industrial catalyst verification form a resonance, a second wave of AI technology could gradually unfold within the year. The key to capturing the second top lies in repositioning rather than adding exposure—that is, shifting from core beta leaders to second- and third-tier strong alpha names. The directions are, first, varieties with relatively delayed high earnings (such as domestic computing power and PCB upstream), and second, new technologies and new applications with lighter chips. When the wind meets the mountain, it stops; the ship will eventually reach shore.
Guotai Haitong: Real Estate | Industry Paradigm Reconstruction, Corporate Anchors Updated
Local detailed rules have been introduced one after another, orderly promoting the implementation of the new policy on completed-home sales. As of October 17, seven cities—Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Tianjin, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen—have issued local detailed rules to improve the commercial housing sales system, implementing the deployment related to reforming and improving the commercial housing sales system, and completed-home sales have entered the implementation stage. From the rules already issued, the overall framework across cities is highly consistent. Cities have made a smooth transition on the "new-old cutoff," uniformly using August 28 as the dividing point, setting transition periods for projects already in progress, extended at most to the end of 2028; at the same time, the pre-sale threshold has been uniformly raised to the completion of the main structure, and pre-sale funds are subject to full-process supervision. At the same time, cities have also proposed differentiated arrangements tailored to local conditions.
Measurement of the new policy's impact on real estate enterprises: based on analysis of local rules. To quantitatively analyze the impact of the new completed-home sales policy on project profitability, capital turnover efficiency, and return on capital of real estate development enterprises, this measurement constructs a standardized residential development project and, while keeping project basic conditions relatively consistent, simulates eight scenarios including traditional pre-sale, main-structure-capped pre-sale, completed-home sales, and transition policies for existing projects. We draw the following conclusions: 1) Compared with the traditional pre-sale model, the main pressure under the completed-home sales scenario is a marked rise in funding pressure and a decline in IRR; 2) Bare-shell sales and phased completion acceptance can improve IRR, but the peak funding requirement still depends on whether collections match large payments; 3) Deposits can lock in part of the purchase price, but during the freeze period they cannot replace construction funds. 4) The completed-home sales scenario is relatively sensitive to land acquisition costs and sales prices, and the current profit buffer comes from lower land prices or higher new home prices.
Impact of the new policy on the industry: short-term shock, long-term stability. On the supply side, the new policy raises the threshold for development investment, and new home supply is expected to contract at an accelerated pace. Although new supply contraction may be faster than demand recovery, it does not mean inventories will immediately decline. On the demand side, the new policy helps reduce delivery risk, and fiscal support is simultaneously achieving breakthroughs. However, whether sales can stabilize in the future still requires coordination among residents' purchasing power, home price expectations, and inventory digestion. On the financial side, credit is contracting simultaneously on both the household and real estate enterprise sides. On the land side, with the trend of declining land finance, the supply mechanism may change. In terms of the competitive landscape, the industry is shifting from high turnover and scale expansion to competition based on capital strength, product quality, and cash flow. Developers with strong financial strength, stable financing channels, deep regional cultivation, and outstanding product capabilities will benefit.
Future outlook: promoting high-quality industry development. We judge that the industry will enter a new stage of accelerated supply contraction, slowly stabilizing demand, and differentiated price recovery. The new policy's impact on the real estate market has an obvious time lag: 2027 will be a period of accelerated supply contraction. Real estate development investment and new construction area will still face downward pressure. New home and second-hand home prices in core first-tier cities are expected to stabilize first. 2028 will be a period of rebalancing between supply and demand. New supply will continue to decrease, and inventory pressure in some core cities will ease somewhat. 2029 will be a period of structural stabilization for the industry. Under the baseline scenario, the declines in real estate development investment and new construction area will narrow significantly, new home sales area will gradually stabilize, core city home prices will recover first, and lower-tier cities will still face adjustment pressure.
Huafu Securities: Machinery & Small/Mid-Cap | Quantum Technology Moving Toward Engineering Deployment
As quantum applications mature, laser systems are indispensable core components. Quantum technology is based on the principles of quantum mechanics, through the precise preparation, manipulation, and measurement of quantum states in microscopic physical systems, utilizing unique physical phenomena such as quantum superposition, quantum entanglement, and quantum tunneling. It mainly includes three major fields: quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum precision measurement. Among them: 1) Quantum computing: possesses the core potential to disrupt traditional classical computing power and is a core strategic track in global technological competition. Currently, the quantum computing industry has not yet formed a unified technological route, with four major routes—superconducting, ion trap, neutral atom, and photonic quantum—racing in parallel, each with advantages and disadvantages. Different technological routes have notably different demands for core hardware such as light sources; 2) Quantum communication: uses the laws of quantum mechanics to transmit, protect, or process information, with lasers generating single photons or entangled photon pairs; 3) Quantum measurement: uses characteristics of quantum systems such as entanglement, squeezing, and higher-order correlations to achieve manipulation and measurement of quantum states. Quantum time-frequency synchronization has the largest market share, and optical clock technology is developing rapidly.
First among six major future industries, the "15th Five-Year Plan" may see a key industrialization turning point. Policy documents such as the "15th Five-Year Plan" outline place quantum technology first among future industries. At the same time, many local governments have issued related plans to promote the industrialization of quantum technology: Hefei, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and other places have introduced special policies, promoting industrialization through measures such as establishing industrial funds, building innovation platforms, and cultivating application scenarios. According to Photon Box, the global quantum computing industry scale in 2025/2030/2035 may be approximately $6.61 billion/$179.52 billion/$681.71 billion, respectively; the global quantum communication security industry scale in 2025/2030/2035 may be approximately $2.703 billion/$11.805 billion/$76.795 billion, respectively; and the global quantum sensing industry scale in 2025/2030/2035 may be $1.88 billion/$2.95 billion/$5.07 billion, respectively.
Sinolink Securities: Power Equipment & New Energy | Wind Power Q3 Results: Profitability Bottoming, 2027 Turning Point
In 26Q3, wind power revenue was 66.6 billion yuan (down 5.1% year-on-year), with net profit attributable to parent of only 167 million yuan (down 91.4% year-on-year), dragged down by slower deliveries combined with low-price orders, raw materials, and exchange rates. Q3 tenders reached 39.7GW (+32%), onshore wind average prices rebounded, and high-priced orders delivered in 2027 will release turbine elasticity. Submarine cable revenue recognition accelerated, while components came under temporary pressure. Sector risks have been cleared; focus on low-valuation turbine makers and overseas submarine cable/monopile opportunities.
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