On March 16, the long-term fundamental outlook for gold remains unchanged. Global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, de-dollarization is progressing, geopolitical risks are rising, and inflation is expected to become more persistent as crude oil prices climb. So why has the price of gold still fallen? None of the core factors supporting gold's long-term bull market have been broken. However, the international spot gold price has retreated from fluctuations around 5300 to test the key psychological level of 5000. The current volatile price action is unsettling. To truly profit from this situation, a steady mindset and a long-term perspective are essential.
The 5000 level is primarily a psychological barrier. A small, initial long position can be considered here to attempt to catch the bottom. Further additions to the position should be planned for the range between 4900 and 4850. If the price reaches this zone, enter; if not, maintain the long position established at 5000 and add to it gradually as the price rises. External factors are highly unpredictable. Often, when a key round number like 5000 is widely perceived as the bottom, a reversal occurs instead, forming the true bottom and rebounding when least expected.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart has formed a bearish crossover and shows strong downward momentum. Therefore, the analysis suggests that the 5000 level, acting as a cliff edge, might be tested and potentially broken, possibly more than once. The appearance of bullish and bearish crossovers on the four-hour chart is a core trading logic. Whether for medium, short, or long-term trades, a bullish crossover on the four-hour timeframe typically signals more stable upward movement. Conversely, the current bearish crossover has extended deep below the zero axis. Bottoming is a process. Any point between the current 5000 level and the previous support low around 4400 could form the actual bottom. However, the current 5000 level is unlikely to hold as the definitive bottom.
This Thursday features the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The early hours of Thursday could mark a turning point or be a period of significant market volatility. Opportunity often comes with heightened risk, so cautious trading is advised.
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