Morgan Stanley Adjusts Price Target for SEAZEN to HK$2.88, Keeps "Overweight" Rating

Deep News04-08

Morgan Stanley has released a report adjusting the target price for SEAZEN (01030) from HK$3.17 to HK$2.88, maintaining a 40% discount to net asset value (NAV). The firm believes that operations are returning to normal, the value of investment properties is expected to be realized, and the drag from the residential business is diminishing. Over the medium term, the company is anticipated to resume dividend payments, warranting an "Overweight" rating.

The report updated the risk-return analysis for SEAZEN, incorporating 2025 performance and introducing forecasts for 2028. Core earnings per share estimates for 2026 were lowered by 9% and for 2027 by 3%, reflecting an updated schedule for property development revenue recognition and project completion, weaker property sales, and improved gross margins for development properties.

Morgan Stanley also reduced its medium-term rental growth forecast for shopping malls, lowering the projected compound annual growth rate from 7–8% to 5–6%, citing fewer new mall openings under the asset-heavy model. However, due to lower financing costs and significantly improved liquidity, the weighted average cost of capital was adjusted downward from 10.4% to 9%.

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