Guotai Haitong has released a research report stating that in its Q3 2026 earnings report, Tesla indicated that the Optimus humanoid robot has already begun production work, with the first batch of Optimus robots meeting mass production standards officially rolling off the line.
Wang Xingxing of Unitree Technology judged that physical AI has already shown signs of being broken through, and this is very likely to happen within the next 1-2 years or 2-3 years.
The main viewpoints of Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. (ASX: 601211) are as follows: The firm believes that the prosperity of the global humanoid robot industry continues to rise. Tesla's Optimus commencing mass production marks a key breakthrough in the industry's commercialization process, and quality targets in both domestic and overseas supply chains are expected to reach an inflection point in performance release.
Tesla Optimus Enters Production, Musk Admits 20,000 Units Per Week Hard to Achieve in Short Term
On October 22, Tesla's Q3 2026 earnings report disclosed that the company has already begun Optimus humanoid robot production work on a large-scale mass production line at its Fremont factory. The first batch of robots meeting mass production standards has officially rolled off the line, and the existing production process already possesses the foundation for manufacturing commercial products. Musk stated that achieving a production capacity target of 20,000 units per week will still require about a year or even longer. As a disruptive brand-new product, Optimus faces many uncertainties in the capacity ramp-up process, with approximately 10,000 details still awaiting debugging and improvement. The project currently still faces multiple practical challenges including robotic hand technology breakthroughs and rare earth magnet supply constraints. Musk expects that by the end of 2027, issues regarding Optimus's design, reliability, and service life will only be basically resolved, after which it will be supplied to external markets.
Unitree Technology's Wang Xingxing Says Physical AI Has Already Shown Signs of Being Broken Through
On October 22, the 2026 World Physical AI Conference and Unitree Partner Ecosystem Conference was held in Hangzhou. Wang Xingxing, Chairman of Unitree Technology, introduced in his keynote speech that Unitree Technology's classic robot Unitree G1 has become the world's best-selling humanoid robot since its release in May 2024, with cumulative production of approximately 10,000 to 20,000 units. Wang Xingxing judged that physical AI has already shown signs of being broken through, and this is very likely to happen within the next 1-2 years or 2-3 years. Although it will still take a 5-10 year cycle for AI technology to fully penetrate from cutting-edge fields into daily life, breakthroughs in the physical AI field are accelerating: large models have already solved core issues in robot planning and communication, leaving only the bottleneck of physical interaction success rate and contact stability. It is expected that a comprehensive breakthrough of capability boundaries can be achieved in as fast as 2 years or as slow as 10 years. The most core challenge for embodied intelligence to pass the ChatGPT moment is the alignment between AI model inputs and outputs and real robots.
MIIT: Using Humanoid Robots as a Small Entry Point to Drive the Large-Scale Development of the Embodied Intelligence Industry
On October 19, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. At the conference, the Director of the Science and Technology Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduced the development situation of China's embodied intelligence industry. In the first half of 2026, China's humanoid robot complete product models exceeded 400, with production exceeding 40,000 units, and annual production is expected to exceed 100,000 units. Next, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will coordinate development and security, following the approach of "innovation leadership, application traction, and ecosystem coordination," using humanoid robots as a small entry point to drive the large-scale development of the embodied intelligence industry, promote the accelerated implementation and application of related products and services, and inject new momentum into technology-driven commerce.
Risk warnings: Industry development progress falling short of expectations; domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations; technology route change risks.
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