International gold prices have once again lost a key level. As of the morning of October 30 Beijing time, spot gold briefly fell below $4,000 per ounce during intraday trading, touching a low of $3,996.50, a daily decline of about 0.7%. By the time of publication, gold prices had rebounded slightly. Overnight, spot gold had already closed down 1.11%, marking its second consecutive trading day of declines. Spot silver also fell in tandem, with intraday losses once reaching 2%.
Domestic gold jewelry prices fell in response. Chow Sang Sang's pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,203 yuan per gram, down 17 yuan in a single day; Chow Tai Fook's pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,199 yuan per gram, down 18 yuan in a single day, with both falling below the 1,200 yuan mark. Compared with the historical high in January this year, the cumulative per-gram declines for Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook are both close to 30%.
Rising rate hike expectations are the core pressure behind this round of declines. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, but two voting members dissented and advocated for a rate hike. The subsequently released third-quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations, and expectations for a December rate hike have risen to around 85%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has firmly held above 5%, keeping the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold elevated.
The technical picture is precarious, with $4,000 becoming a key dividing line between bulls and bears. BCA Research chief commodities strategist Roukaya Ibrahim pointed out that gold prices are "struggling" near $4,000, a level that has become a key support; although technical indicators show short-term oversold conditions, the strong dollar and persistent inflation pressure mean the short term is more likely to enter sideways consolidation rather than a significant rebound. If prices continue to break below $4,000, downside risks will further increase. Suki Cooper, global head of commodities research at Standard Chartered, explicitly warned that $3,886 per ounce is the next key technical support, and once that level is breached, support will "rapidly fade." JPMorgan was even more cautious, stating bluntly that there is "almost no technical support below $4,000," and that the market is in a rather fragile state.
However, JPMorgan expects the Fed to continue raising rates in December and in the first quarter of 2027, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield potentially peaking at 5.25%–5.5% by mid-year. Only after rates peak will gold build a solid bottom, but gold prices are still expected to rise to $4,500 by mid-2027 and reach $5,000 by year-end. Goldman Sachs and UBS maintained their 2027 target prices at $5,400–$5,600 and around $5,400, respectively, with the core basis still being structural demand from central bank gold purchases and the "debt debasement trade."
In the short term, whether the $4,000 threshold is held or lost will determine whether gold prices enter sideways consolidation or seek the next layer of support around $3,886. In the medium to long term, the logic of central bank gold purchases and the repricing of dollar credit has not yet been broken, but in a high-interest-rate environment, confirmation of a bottom still requires waiting for a clear turning point in the Fed's tightening cycle.
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