On November 3, the gold market was driven by a mix of positive and negative factors, with prices caught between two opposing forces.
Recent signs of easing tensions in U.S.-Iran talks have cooled fears that a Middle East conflict could push oil prices higher, while the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields have also edged lower. That gave gold a short-term opening to rebound from recent lows, and with some short-term funds stepping in to buy the dip, the metal's near-term trend appears to be gradually turning more bullish.
However, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has not fully changed, and the market is still weighing the possibility of a year-end rate hike. Elevated interest rates continue to raise the cost of holding gold, which is the key factor capping the upside for any rebound. With U.S.-Iran talks on one side and the Fed's high-rate policy on the other, gold's short-term direction is locked in a tug-of-war, so short-term trading should focus on playing both directions while waiting for further clarity from upcoming market news.
Looking at the current gold chart, last night's rebound was still a repair move after last week's sharp drop, not a true trend reversal.
It simply shows that after repeated declines, buying interest is once again catching the market from below, and short-term indicators have started to recover from oversold levels. Still, upward momentum remains insufficient, and overhead resistance is heavy.
For now, a few key levels are worth remembering: if gold pulls back again in the short term, watch the near-term support at 3920-3915. If that zone holds, the rebound still has room to continue. But if it breaks decisively below, the market will likely test important short-term supports at 3900 and 3890.
On the upside, if gold rebounds again, the first area to watch is 3965-3970. Only a firm hold above that level would give bulls a chance to challenge the strong resistance around the 3990-4000 mark. That said, there is a lot of trapped supply in that former area, so a one-shot breakout will not be easy for the bulls.
In the near term, as long as there is no clear catalyst from the news flow, gold will most likely remain rangebound between 3890 and 3970, and short-term traders should avoid chasing highs or selling into lows.
If participating in short-term trades, consider going long only after gold falls to a suitable level, or go short after price clearly stalls and turns lower at overhead resistance. At the same time, be alert to sudden news-driven swings that can cause rapid moves in either direction.
Until the Fed clearly softens its rate-hike stance, gold is unlikely to sustain a major rally. The current phase looks more like a drawn-out bottoming process, and technically, only a sustained break above the 4000 mark would gradually strengthen the medium- to long-term trend.
For today's short-term gold trading levels, reference can be made as follows: 1. After last night's rebound, gold has come under pressure again and pulled back. Consider going long first near support at 3915-3920, with a stop below 3915, targeting 3950-3965 on the upside. 2. If gold rebounds again, consider going short again after it touches and faces pressure near 3965-3970, with a stop above 3980, targeting 3935-3930 on the downside. 3. Daytime trading is expected to be quiet, so the overall approach can be to trade both directions within the 3920-3970 range. If price later breaks below or above that range, the trading band can be widened to 3890-3990.
Sina Disclaimer: This message is reposted from a Sina partner media outlet. Sina publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information and does not mean it agrees with or confirms its views or descriptions. The content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors who act on it do so at their own risk.
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