核心业务首现负增长，或是阿里主动为之？

华尔街见闻2022-02-27

作者：王奕懿2月24日晚间，阿里巴巴公布了2022财年第三季度（2021年10-12月）的财报：营收为RMB 2425.8亿元，YoY+10%；经营利润为70.7亿元，YoY-86%; 经调整EBITA为448.2亿元，YoY-27%; Non-GAAP净利润446亿，YoY-25%。对于该份财报，从市场的反馈和评论来看，是存在一定分歧的，较为悲观的空方认为是不及预期的：代表基本盘的国内电商收入...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

嘞撸虎7
2022-02-28
嘞撸虎7
閱
Futre
2022-02-28
Futre
贊👍
Youn7276
2022-02-28
Youn7276
Ok
开洱文
2022-02-27
开洱文
66
Li Guixi
2022-02-27
Li Guixi
贊👍
Futre
2022-02-27
Futre
贊👍

Leave a comment

202

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110129778?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d752152b73947ff2f4b1c08ab9eecc39","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-02-27 11:37","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","id":"1110129778","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"核心业务首现负增长，或是阿里主动为之？","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>作者：王奕懿2月24日晚间，阿里巴巴公布了2022财年第三季度（2021年10-12月）的财报：营收为RMB 2425.8亿元，YoY+10%；经营利润为70.7亿元，YoY-86%; 经调整EBITA为448.2亿元，YoY-27%; Non-GAAP净利润446亿，YoY-25%。对于该份财报，从市场的反馈和评论来看，是存在一定分歧的，较为悲观的空方认为是不及预期的：代表基本盘的国内电商收入...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652905\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>核心业务首现负增长，或是阿里主动为之？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n核心业务首现负增长，或是阿里主动为之？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-27 11:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652905><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：王奕懿2月24日晚间，阿里巴巴公布了2022财年第三季度（2021年10-12月）的财报：营收为RMB 2425.8亿元，YoY+10%；经营利润为70.7亿元，YoY-86%; 经调整EBITA为448.2亿元，YoY-27%; Non-GAAP净利润446亿，YoY-25%。对于该份财报，从市场的反馈和评论来看，是存在一定分歧的，较为悲观的空方认为是不及预期的：代表基本盘的国内电商收入...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652905\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BABA","symbol_name":"阿里巴巴","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652905","article_id":"1110129778","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/d752152b73947ff2f4b1c08ab9eecc39"],"rights":{"source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652905","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110129778","pubTimestamp":1645933055,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"阿里虽无法如过去强劲高速增长，但有着清晰战略规划的阿里未来仍然可期。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"translate_title":"Is the core business experiencing negative growth for the first time, or is Ali taking the initiative?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d446c30a254c4e34d209c56f943a6da6","symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9},"content_text":"作者：王奕懿2月24日晚间，阿里巴巴公布了2022财年第三季度（2021年10-12月）的财报：营收为RMB 2425.8亿元，YoY+10%；经营利润为70.7亿元，YoY-86%; 经调整EBITA为448.2亿元，YoY-27%; Non-GAAP净利润446亿，YoY-25%。对于该份财报，从市场的反馈和评论来看，是存在一定分歧的，较为悲观的空方认为是不及预期的：代表基本盘的国内电商收入增长仅7%，其中贡献阿里主要收入及利润的客户管理首次录得负增长；同时，被寄予厚望的云业务增速只有20%，比起主要竞争对手增速情况实在不算好；剩余的业务截至目前无法挑起大梁，拖累整体盈利能力，数字媒体业务本季度更是一次性计提251亿元商誉减值；较为乐观的多方则是从财报及业绩交流中找到了更多积极因素。华尔街见闻·见智研究对阿里的未来还是更多持偏乐观鼓励态度的：人口红利见顶、中国经济增速的换挡、强监管及反垄断下，再指望阿里的成长如过去那般强劲本身就是不现实的；阿里在积极迭代和自我蜕变，对于阿里许多质疑的答案及未来的发展路径已经埋藏在公司最近的动作及本次财报、业绩交流会中。阿里长远来看仍旧会是中国最值得关注的公司之一。客户管理首次录得负增长，或是阿里主动为之的结果市场最关心的仍旧是中国商业部分，代表了阿里电商基本盘。本季度，贡献阿里主要收入及利润的客户管理（广告和佣金）收入YoY-1%，首次录得负增长；这也是空方最主要的顾虑所在，认为电商市场的激烈竞争使得阿里已经失去了电商的主导地位，因此不得不选择给商家让利来求生存。确实，管理层也在业绩会中坦承了电商市场的竞争加剧是制约自身增速的一大原因，公司也确实主动降低了服务收费，但借此判断阿里的电商业务已经日落西山还为时尚早。2021年Q4，国内10-12月社零同比增速分别为4.9%、3.9%、1.7%，经济下行大趋势下盘子大的淘系电商自然也无法有好的情况，阿里电商业务是不能跳脱出中国宏观经济趋势去看的这点市场多数人都明白，因此对于本季度淘宝和天猫GMV是单位数增长并未感到意外，但对于低于预期的客户管理增速转负更多人是归咎于市场的激烈竞争，但忽略了其本质还是经济造成的：淘系电商贡献最多的GMV品类是服饰这种价格敏感型品类，过去一年消费业普遍面临成本上升，终端需求不振的问题，很多商家的运营模式从原先的“高周转低利润”转向了“保利润”，电商大数据可以部分佐证这一观点：对比2020年和2021年同期，可以发现大趋势是2021年销售额有适量增长，其中销量下滑，但均价提升幅度较大。数据来源：天猫、京东等各线上平台，WIND见智研究认为，阿里的一个护城河是其网络效应：当商家越多时，SKU越多，也越能吸引到有各种需求的消费者，消费者越多又反哺了商家数量的提升。疫情以来宏观经济的不景气叠加愈加高昂的获客费用给商家带来了极大的压力，因此阿里或出于留客目的主动对客户管理业务进行了让利。竞争激烈并不可怕，可怕的是在存量经济、蛋糕增长变得很慢的时候竞争激烈。财报透露着的清晰战略考量：天猫的客户收入固然值得留心，但财报中披露了一些电商的新亮点：截至2021年12月31日，“淘宝特价版”淘特拥有2.8亿度活跃消费者（AAC），环比增长3900万，支付订单量同比强劲增长超过100%；与此同时，社区电商平台淘菜菜则持续渗透到欠发达地区，实现GMV环比增长30%。许多投资者并不理解阿里为何要大手笔投入淘特和淘菜菜，毕竟淘特面对的竞争对手有拼多多、京喜，要突破并不容易；社区团购、日用品则更是竞争白热、吃力不讨好的辛苦活，见智研究认为阿里对于淘特和淘菜菜的投入是有着清晰战略层面的考量的：淘特承担者下沉市场拉新的重任，淘菜菜则属于“近场电商”，帮助阿里占据近场市场及在下沉市场建立完善供应链和物流履约网络。财报和业绩会议中也都明确表明了公司的战略考量：“现在服装和消费电子的渗透率已经达到30%-40%，属于电商发展中相对高的水平；但对于快消品、食品，特别是生鲜品，绝对市场容量非常大，因为是刚性需求，每个家庭都需要，同时电商渗透率还是相对较低的。模式多元化，远场、近场、履约系统必须有很好的集成设计才能提供良好的体验。盒马、大润发、饿了么、天猫超市、淘菜菜等，是有分层设计的，线上线下结合的，远场近场结合的。”因此，虽然社区团购、日用品已经竞争激烈，阿里还是必须投入极大的资源和精力来开启及运营这部分业务，就算目前产生相当亏损也在所不辞。当然，大的战略方向合理后就看阿里能否将各项业务顺利跑通及整合，真正实现一个多样化的消费者业务矩阵了。当然，本地生活服务也是其中重要不可或缺的组成部分。财报中菜鸟物流也有一定亮点，虽然首次汇报的抵消跨分部交易（阿里以外）的营收增速只有15%，并不高，但本季度67%的营收来自外部客户，且国际物流基建进一步加强，本季度菜鸟国际物流网日均处理包裹超过500万个，国内农村地区菜鸟驿站数量也同比增加了一倍多，物流基础设施的进一步完善会不断促进阿里在2021年投资者日提出的三大战略中的“内需消费”及“全球化”。阿里最近的组织架构及高管调整其实也是顺应战略发展的动作。今年1月1日起，戴珊负责分管由大淘宝（天猫、淘宝、阿里妈妈）、B2C零售事业群，淘菜菜、淘1688等业务组成的“中国数字商业板块”，淘宝、天猫的界限被打破，在双品牌运营基础上全面打通中后台，持续优化消费者体验及为全域商家提供全生命周期的各种产品服务。此前，戴珊曾任集团首席客户服务官，领导从零开始的集团客户服务部，被认为是阿里最熟悉和重视客户的人，此时在竞争激烈且用户增量可见天花板的国内电商市场，阿里正需要这样一位领导人来从深度上带领电商业务更上一层楼。与此同时，此前出任天猫、淘宝事业群总裁的蒋凡则被任命分管“海外数字商业板块”，作为曾经推动淘宝从PC到移动转型的关键人物，蒋凡是帮助阿里打下江山不可或缺的一名大将，这则任命也印证了张勇在内部信中提到的海外业务将是未来拓展的重点。至此，阿里的战略完全清晰：国内市场，传统电商是其基础盘，守住的基础上尽可能拓展，注重做深做好；市场容量大、渗透率低的高频场景、近场零售必须要进入，是未来国内商业的增量；同时，抓好物流的基础设施的持续建设来为国内及国际商业的拓展打好基础。同时，也抓好云计算这项底层科技基础设施的建设来帮助企业效率提高，不仅有助于自身业务体系的可持续发展，也能助力实现社会对于互联网巨头发挥技术与科技创新的期盼。商业世界中唯一不变的就只有变化本身，阿里高增的时代至少暂时落幕了，虽然前路未卜，但对于这个商业巨头而言，还能积极进取的迭代自己就已经是值得鼓励了。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9039889287,"gmtCreate":1646004375233,"gmtModify":1676534080288,"author":{"id":"4092032122452460","authorId":"4092032122452460","name":"嘞撸虎7","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451ff62190f624c13c07b54476dd5930","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4092032122452460","authorIdStr":"4092032122452460"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039889287","repostId":1110129778,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9039812528,"gmtCreate":1646003998184,"gmtModify":1676534080155,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564108727353086","authorIdStr":"3564108727353086"},"htmlText":"贊👍","listText":"贊👍","text":"贊👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039812528","repostId":1110129778,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9039890628,"gmtCreate":1645999184098,"gmtModify":1676534079452,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039890628","repostId":1110129778,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9039148753,"gmtCreate":1645975248353,"gmtModify":1676534078848,"author":{"id":"3578098715246654","authorId":"3578098715246654","name":"开洱文","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6a32c6dd5e85c5b3bf6c591b38391d6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578098715246654","authorIdStr":"3578098715246654"},"htmlText":"66","listText":"66","text":"66","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039148753","repostId":1110129778,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9039150282,"gmtCreate":1645970469801,"gmtModify":1676534078412,"author":{"id":"3570833668911971","authorId":"3570833668911971","name":"Li Guixi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d47f140f55f4badb19ca06d16064de5b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570833668911971","authorIdStr":"3570833668911971"},"htmlText":"贊👍","listText":"贊👍","text":"贊👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039150282","repostId":1110129778,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9039187049,"gmtCreate":1645958553810,"gmtModify":1676534077696,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564108727353086","authorIdStr":"3564108727353086"},"htmlText":"贊👍","listText":"贊👍","text":"贊👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039187049","repostId":1110129778,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":202,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1110129778"}