Overnight, lead futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed lower. The session opened at $1,870 per tonne, reached a high of $1,881.5, touched a low of $1,853, and settled at $1,866.5, a decline of $5.5 or 0.29%. Trading volume was 11,214 contracts with open interest at 183,090 contracts.
Today's Market Outlook for Spot Lead
On July 2, the broader commodity market is expected to exhibit a pattern of "external turbulence and internal stability." Internationally, the advancement of indirect talks between the US and Iran in Doha has heightened expectations for looser crude oil supply, leading to a sharp single-day drop in oil prices. Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve are supporting a stronger US dollar, while a pullback across US stock markets indicates a cooling of risk appetite. The imminent release of US non-farm payrolls data has become the central variable for global asset pricing.
Domestically, high-end manufacturing sectors are maintaining robust growth momentum. A recovery in consumption and the acceleration of the new energy industry are providing a solid demand foundation. Overnight, LME base metals were mostly lower with mixed performance, with zinc and lead leading the declines while nickel bucked the trend to close higher. Amid these conflicting factors, a clear directional trend has yet to formally emerge.
Current Supply-Demand Dynamics in Raw Materials and the Industrial Chain
On the natural ore front, global supply of galena, cerussite, and anglesite remains stable, with limited new mine commissioning. Mining cost pressures are supporting ore prices, and processing fees are staying at low levels. In the recycled raw materials sector, the collection of used lead-acid batteries has entered a seasonal lull. Supply of lead-containing scrap is tight, and recyclers are holding back inventory, pushing scrap prices higher. This has created an inverted price relationship with finished lead, causing widespread losses for secondary smelters and slowing the pace of production resumption. The overall industrial chain is experiencing weakness on both the supply and demand sides, with slow inventory drawdown in the midstream.
Price Forecast and Trading Approach for Today
Lead prices are projected to remain range-bound today, with little chance of a significant shift in the trading center. The expected fluctuation range is 15,800 to 15,900 yuan per tonne. For trading strategy, a range-trading approach is recommended. Consider light long positions near support levels and take timely profits near resistance. The key focus should be on the two core variables of the non-farm payrolls data and the US dollar's movement. Strict position control is advised to mitigate risks from potential data-driven volatility.
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