GF Securities released a research report stating that countries worldwide are refining hydrogen energy policy frameworks, with international trade cooperation accelerating. China has included hydrogen energy in its central five-year plan recommendations for the first time, signaling accelerated forward-looking deployment.
Currently, fossil-fuel-based hydrogen production dominates, while China has numerous planned electrolysis projects. Domestic electrolyzer demand continues rapid growth, with public tender volumes for electrolysis equipment exceeding 2,369MW in 2024 (January-December), up 39.7% year-over-year. New electrolyzer manufacturers have entered full market competition, with priority recommended for cost-competitive electrolyzer and green methanol producers. Key insights follow:
**Global Hydrogen Acceleration Spurs China's Strategic Deployment** Countries are establishing comprehensive hydrogen policies as international collaboration advances. China's inaugural inclusion of hydrogen in five-year planning suggests imminent strategic moves. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, expanding non-electric applications for renewables and enhancing hydrogen's role in renewable integration will likely become focal points. Accelerated construction of wind-solar-hydrogen-ammonia-methanol bases may resolve critical supply-demand bottlenecks, driving full-chain development. GF Securities recommends strategic focus on green hydrogen's production-storage-utilization value chain as the primary growth area for investment.
**Green Hydrogen Chain: Production Matures While Other Segments Develop** The green hydrogen industry comprises production, storage/transport, and utilization. Fossil fuels currently dominate hydrogen production, though China has multiple electrolysis projects underway. In 2024, China's electrolytic hydrogen output reached ~320,000 tons (+3.6% YoY). Methanol and ammonia synthesis accounted for 27% and 26% of sectoral hydrogen consumption respectively. Hydrogen storage/transport remains nascent with limited scale, while domestic hydrogen refueling stations grew steadily—527 stations by June 2025 (+27 new stations in H1 2025, +12.5% YoY).
**Electrolyzers: Core Equipment Facing Surging Demand** Multiple electrolysis technologies exist, with alkaline (ALK) and proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers poised to lead. ALK systems offer simplicity and cost advantages, while PEM provides higher efficiency at greater expense. Solid oxide electrolysis (SOEC) remains pre-commercial. China's 2024 electrolyzer tender volume surged to 2,369MW (+39.7% YoY), with ALK units dominating (98.6% share vs. 95.5% in 2023). PEM demand fell to 1.3%. Global electrolyzer capacity grew 271% to 5.2GW in 2024, with China contributing over 50% (2.5GW). Market concentration eased as CR5 dropped to 55% in 2024 (-5pp).
**Recommended Stocks** GF Securities prioritizes cost-competitive electrolyzer and green methanol producers: - *Electrolyzers*: LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH), Sungrow Power (300274.SZ); watch Huaguang Power (600475.SH), Huadian Engineering (601226.SH), Shuangliang Eco-Energy (600481.SH) - *Green Methanol*: Goldwind Science & Technology (002202.SZ); watch Jiaze New Energy (601619.SH), Jilin Electric Power (000875.SZ), CIMC Enric (03899.HK), China Tianying (000035.SZ)
**Risks**: Policy shifts; intensified electrolyzer price competition; hydrogen adoption delays.
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