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On Monday morning, October 19, gold edged slightly higher, with price action mainly driven by sanctions and tariff news. The market expects that related policies may boost Russian fuel exports, weakening international oil prices in early trading, which to some extent eases pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding rate hikes and opens a short-term rebound window for gold prices. Currently, gold is in a phase of repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Last week's inflation data and rate hike expectations continued to weigh on gold prices, while a weakening dollar, volatile US Treasuries, and geopolitical risks provided downside support for gold. Monday's modest rebound shows that bulls have not completely exited, but resistance above $4,200 remains strong, and combined with the market's high-probability pricing of a December rate hike, the upside for gold prices remains limited.
If this week's economic data continues to reflect economic resilience and sticky inflation, gold will most likely remain range-bound and could even test downside support again. Conversely, if oil prices continue to fall or Fed officials strike a more dovish tone, gold prices may have a chance to challenge previous highs once more. Investors need to keep watching Fed officials' remarks, Middle East geopolitical developments, and this week's major economic data, waiting for direction confirmation amid uncertainty.
In the long term, gold's asset attributes as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk have not changed, but in a high interest rate environment, gold prices fluctuate more in response to marginal changes in policy expectations and are unlikely to enter a one-sided trend. Looking back at the chart, gold and silver have already been oscillating at low levels for three consecutive weeks, trapped in a pattern of weak upward momentum and blocked declines. Even though last week's initial jobless claims and CPI data were broadly bearish, they failed to break the current weak consolidation structure. Reviewing the past three weeks, the core judgment is very clear: gold prices below $4,230 represent a weak market and are temporarily unable to launch a one-sided rally, but a double-bottom pattern has already formed near $4,070, limiting the scope for sustained deep declines. This week's focus is on waiting for a directional breakout within this weak oscillation range. Whether it subsequently surges upward or breaks downward, simply wait for the market to give a clear signal.
Trading reference range: resistance above at $4,230, support below at $4,070. Within this range, sell high and buy low; the short-term range is $4,260-$4,150.
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