On Thursday, April 23, international gold prices encountered resistance again, closing lower and moving below key moving averages including the 100-day and middle Bollinger Band. Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz boosted oil prices, strengthening them and putting pressure on gold. This shift allowed bearish forces to gain the upper hand, suggesting potential for a further pullback toward the 144-day moving average support near $4,555, or even a retest of the 200-day moving average.
In terms of price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,744.22 per ounce and experienced significant volatility with a roller-coaster decline throughout the day. The early Asian session saw a high of $4,753.23, while the latter part of the U.S. session recorded a low of $4,664.10. The metal eventually rebounded from the lows to close at $4,693.98, marking a daily range of $89.13 and a decline of $50.24, or 1.06%.
Looking ahead to Friday, April 24, international gold opened on a weaker note. Selling pressure from technical resistance, coupled with expectations for continued strength in oil and the U.S. dollar index—both having rebounded above their short-term moving averages and middle Bollinger Bands—limited bullish momentum for gold, pushing prices lower.
Market participants will focus on data releases including the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April and the final one-year inflation expectations for April. Market expectations lean toward bearish outcomes. Combined with technical resistance, intraday strategy favors short positions on gold.
Fundamentally, both supportive and bearish factors are present, alongside unpredictable geopolitical developments. On one hand, Israel continues to issue strong signals about potential military action against Iran, with the Revolutionary Guard taking full command of countermeasures. The U.S. remains ambivalent between war and peace, and conflict over the globally critical Strait of Hormuz appears imminent, with a fragile ceasefire on the verge of collapse.
On the other hand, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Israel and Lebanon would extend the current ceasefire by three weeks. Iran's Foreign Ministry also indicated that preparations for Iran-U.S. negotiations could see a breakthrough within a day or two, with the focus shifting from nuclear issues to a comprehensive ceasefire.
Additionally, Trump announced he has ordered the Navy to sink any vessel laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and to conduct mine-clearing operations there at triple the previous intensity. This move aims to ensure safe passage through the strait and undermine Iran's leverage, supporting both navigation and diplomatic talks.
Overall, short-term risks remain elevated. Strengthening oil prices and the U.S. dollar, combined with the ongoing U.S.-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz—still unresolved—lead markets to believe gold remains under pressure from the outlook for stronger oil and inflation concerns, maintaining a bias for weak adjustment.
However, from a longer-term directional perspective, combined with adjustments in Federal Reserve policy and sustained gold purchases by global central banks, gold prices still hold bullish prospects based on geopolitical premiums and fundamental logic. This outlook, however, may require either another corrective decline or an extended period of sideways consolidation—a test of time and patience.
Technically, on a monthly chart, gold closed above its rising trendline in March, preserving its bullish outlook. April’s opening also remains above this trendline. As long as monthly closes do not fall below this line, expectations for new highs remain intact.
On the weekly chart, gold continued its rebound last week with a higher close but failed to break above the resistance of the 10-week moving average. This leaves open the risk of a further correction toward $4,550 or lower. Conversely, a breakout above the 10-week moving average could pave the way for another run toward record highs.
On the daily chart, gold is now trading not only below the 60-day moving average but also back below the 100-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band. Bearish momentum has increased, suggesting a near-term move lower toward support at the 144-day moving average (currently around $4,550), with potential risk of a retest of the 200-day moving average (currently near $4,260).
Resistance above is seen at the 100-day moving average, followed by the 60-day moving average. A break above these levels could open a path toward the $5,000 mark and strengthen expectations for a new record high. Until then, a weak, range-bound trend is expected, awaiting a pullback toward target support levels.
For real-time trading guidance, refer to live account updates.
Preliminary intraday trading levels for reference (exact entry/exit points subject to live account notifications): Gold: Support at $4,670 or $4,635; resistance at $4,720 or $4,740. Silver: Support at $73.70 or $72.50; resistance at $76.50 or $77.50.
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