Corn prices showed a strong upward trend in the first quarter, with the national average price generally maintaining an increase, though it experienced a slight decline in late March. The lowest price was recorded on January 5 at 2,235 yuan per ton, while the peak was reached on March 18 at 2,349 yuan per ton, resulting in a price differential of 114 yuan. By March 31, the national average corn price stood at 2,331 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.23%. The relatively tight supply-demand dynamics supported the continuous price rise; however, increased selling activity by traders in late March led to a slightly more balanced market, causing a minor price dip.
Farmers sold their grain in an orderly manner throughout the quarter, with the overall sales pace progressing steadily. Selling became more concentrated only briefly before the Spring Festival and in mid-to-late March, leading to increased grain availability. However, in North China, limited trader inventories due to earlier issues with high moisture or mold in corn, coupled with strong demand for high-quality grain in Northeast China after the new season harvest, meant that effective supply increases were not significant. As a result, corn market supply remained relatively tight throughout the quarter.
Downstream demand stayed at elevated levels. Data indicates that deep-processing enterprises consumed 19.33 million tons of corn in the first quarter, a slight decrease of 510,000 tons compared to the same period last year. Despite cost pressures and reduced profitability limiting operating rates since corn prices began rising in November 2025, consumption remained at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. From the new grain上市 period in 2025 to the end of March 2026, deep-processing corn consumption decreased by only 190,000 tons year-on-year, still positioning it at a relatively high level in recent years.
In the feed sector, high livestock and poultry inventories drove feed demand to its highest level in several years. Total feed production reached approximately 139.23 million tons from January to February, up 7.70% year-on-year. Although wheat continued to substitute for corn in North China due to unstable toxin levels in local corn, its substitution advantage was limited in non-major wheat-producing regions. Additionally, imported barley volumes were relatively limited, and sorghum lacked a substitution advantage. Overall, alternative grain usage remained constrained. Feed corn consumption in the first quarter is expected to increase by 11.76% compared to the same period last year. Considering the limited decline in deep-processing consumption and the significant rise in feed demand, total corn demand in the first quarter of 2026 increased compared to the previous year.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, supply-demand conditions may loosen initially before tightening again. In early April, the remaining grain at the farm level in production areas is gradually being sold off, reducing purchase and sales volume and concentrating grain sources in the hands of traders. Due to the recent price decline since late March, some traders may become more inclined to sell. In North China, higher moisture or mold in stored corn, coupled with rising temperatures, could prompt increased outflows. Additionally, many traders may need to clear storage space before the wheat harvest. Although falling prices have reduced profit margins, selling pre-Spring Festival inventory still offers some gains. Overall, trader selling is expected to increase moderately in April and May, leading to relatively ample supply. However, as North China enters the concentrated wheat harvest period, trader inventories may decline, tightening effective corn supply starting in June.
On the demand side, historical patterns suggest that deep-processing corn consumption may decline in the second quarter due to profitability constraints and operating rate limitations. In feed production, increased arrivals of substitutes like imported barley could raise alternative grain usage, restraining feed corn demand. Overall, corn demand is expected to decrease in the second quarter.
Considering these factors, corn market conditions may shift from loose to tight during the quarter. However, supported by traders' inventory costs, acceptance of lower prices may be limited, curbing the downside for corn prices. Prices are expected to decline initially, then experience narrow fluctuations before rising again. The lowest price, likely around 2,290–2,300 yuan per ton, may occur near the end of April, while the peak, around 2,350 yuan per ton, is anticipated around mid-June.
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