Gf Securities released a research report stating that against the backdrop of continuous optimization in supply-demand dynamics and a steady improvement in airlines' pricing power, the airport and aviation industry has enhanced its ability to withstand oil price fluctuations. In the short term, the focus is on tracking price performance under high oil price levels, with attention on opportunities for contrarian investment in the sector. In the railway sector, short-term benefits are driven by rising airfares, while high-speed rail faces minimal impact from oil prices, showcasing significant cost advantages and strong substitution effects. In the medium to long term, potential high-speed rail speed increases may be implemented, unlocking capacity limits and amplifying network effects. The main views of Gf Securities are as follows:
Travel growth during the Qingming holiday period remained steady. According to the Ministry of Transport, from April 3 to April 7, 2026, total cross-regional passenger movements during the Qingming holiday reached 1.05 billion, averaging 260 million daily, a 3.9% increase compared to the same period last year.
In the aviation sector, both passenger volume and airfares rose against the backdrop of high oil prices, highlighting demand resilience, with outbound travel showing notable performance. In terms of volume, civil aviation passenger traffic during the Qingming holiday increased year-over-year. According to Flight Master, from April 3 to April 7, 2026, the average daily number of flights was 14,700, up 1.0% and 5.0% compared to 2025 and 2019, respectively. Domestic flights averaged 12,400 per day, increasing by 0.8% and 9.1% compared to 2025 and 2019, respectively. International flights averaged 2,200 per day, rising 2.3% compared to 2025 and recovering to 87.0% of the 2019 level. In terms of demand performance, the Ministry of Transport reported an average daily civil aviation passenger volume of 1.976 million during the Qingming holiday, up 2.8% compared to 2025. Flight Master data indicated that the passenger load factor increased by 0.6 percentage points year-over-year to 84.1%, and was 1.8 percentage points higher than in 2019. International routes benefited from visa-free entry policies. According to the National Immigration Administration, average daily inbound and outbound trips during the Qingming holiday reached 2.26 million, a 9.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Short-haul international travel to neighboring regions remained the preferred choice for travelers. Among the top 20 international/regional departure routes during the Qingming holiday, flights to South Korea ranked first, increasing by 12.4% compared to 2025. Flights to Japan declined by over 50%, while Thailand, Malaysia, Russia, and Kazakhstan saw significant growth in flight numbers.
In terms of pricing, rising airfares partially offset oil price pressures. According to Flight Master, the average domestic economy class airfare during the Qingming holiday reached 780.7 yuan (including taxes), up 12.0% compared to 2025 and 6.8% higher than in 2019. This was mainly due to several provinces implementing spring break policies, which, combined with the Qingming statutory holiday, created an extended break, boosting medium- and long-haul travel demand. Coupled with restrained capacity expansion, airfares showed significant year-over-year growth.
The substitution effect between air and rail travel became evident, with holiday travel demand maintaining strong momentum. Driven by policies focused on quality improvement, efficiency enhancement, strengthened high-speed rail capacity, and market-oriented transport organization, railways continued to enhance their ability to meet short- to medium-haul and intercity travel demand during holidays. From April 3 to April 7, 2026, average daily railway passenger volume reached 19.011 million, a 9.4% year-over-year increase. In road passenger transport, the normalization of holiday travel trends such as reverse travel and niche tourism, along with moderate reforms in urban commercial road passenger systems, contributed to an average daily passenger volume of 35.910 million, up 2.4% year-over-year.
Risk warnings include significant economic fluctuations, substantial volatility in oil prices and exchange rates, and large-scale natural disasters.
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