China Galaxy Securities: AI and New Energy Drive High Demand, MLCC Enters New Growth Cycle

Stock News06-02

Looking ahead, several key trends are set to propel growth in the multilayer ceramic capacitor (MLCC) market. Firstly, AI servers require over ten times the number of MLCCs compared to traditional servers. As AI adoption expands and domestic MLCC leaders advance their technology, they stand to benefit significantly.

Secondly, the average pure electric vehicle uses six times more MLCCs than an internal combustion engine vehicle. This, combined with the evolution of intelligent driving systems, presents a major opportunity for leading domestic MLCC manufacturers.

Thirdly, the high-end MLCC and advanced electronic ceramic materials markets are currently dominated by Japanese, Korean, and American firms, indicating substantial room for import substitution.

Key Drivers of Growth

The AI sector is fueling robust demand. The global MLCC market for AI edge devices is projected to reach RMB 14.68 billion by 2029, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 54.5% from 2025 to 2029. An AI server can use 8 to 12 times more MLCCs than a standard server, with high-end configurations exceeding 440,000 units per cabinet.

Concurrently, the global MLCC market for AI servers is expected to hit RMB 23.91 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 39.6%. This underscores the strong demand from both AI edge devices and industrial applications.

The new energy vehicle revolution is another powerful catalyst. The average electric vehicle now incorporates approximately 18,000 MLCCs, a sixfold increase over traditional vehicles. With Chinese new energy vehicle production and sales reaching 16.626 million and 16.49 million units respectively in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 29% and 28.2%, MLCC consumption is accelerating rapidly.

Furthermore, the rise of intelligent driving is pushing the industry toward higher-end components. Murata's projections indicate the number of vehicles equipped with L2+ advanced driver-assistance systems will surge by roughly 2.8 times by the 2027 fiscal year, significantly boosting demand for premium MLCCs.

Company products are applied across multiple automotive scenarios, including MLCCs, ceramic packaging substrates, alumina ceramic substrates, electronic pastes, and other components, indicating sustained medium-to-long-term industry vitality.

Substantial Import Substitution Potential

The global MLCC supply landscape is highly concentrated. In 2024, Japan's Murata held a 31.8% market share, followed by Korea's Samsung Electro-Mechanics at 22.9%. Chinese players like Fenghua Advanced Technology and Microgate Technology held shares of 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively.

The Chinese MLCC market is led by Japanese and Korean manufacturers, with Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics collectively controlling over 50% of the market, particularly in the high-end segment. However, domestic manufacturers such as Sanhuan Group, Fenghua Advanced Technology, and Microgate Technology are rapidly advancing, with their combined market share reaching 10.49%, highlighting the vast potential for local substitution.

Long-Term Growth in Advanced Materials

The global market for core advanced electronic ceramic materials is forecast to grow from RMB 24.1 billion in 2025 to RMB 42.2 billion in 2030, at a CAGR of 11.8%. The supply of ceramic powders is dominated by Japanese and American firms, with Japan's Sakai Chemical, America's Ferro, and Japan's Nippon Chemical holding significant shares.

Domestically, Sinocera holds a 10% market share. Global supply of high-end ceramic powder is highly concentrated, with Japanese manufacturers collectively accounting for approximately 75% of supply.

Advanced electronic ceramic materials are poised to benefit continuously from the robust growth in automotive electronics, AI data centers, and consumer electronics.

Risk Factors to Consider

Potential risks include weaker-than-expected demand for AI servers, a decline in new energy vehicle sales, a slower-than-anticipated recovery in consumer electronics, setbacks in import substitution efforts, and challenges in accounts receivable collection.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment