China's A-share market opened lower across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.19% and the ChiNext Index falling 0.21%. Leading the gains were the consumer electronics, NVIDIA concept, and nuclear pollution sectors, while innovative drugs, precious metals, and robotics sectors lagged.
**Institutional Views on Market Outlook**
**GF Securities**: Large-cap stocks are expected to outperform small-caps in December, with dividend-focused strategies gaining temporary dominance. Financial sectors (non-banking financials and banks) are likely to lead in average gains. As year-end evaluation approaches, institutional investors such as insurers may rebalance their portfolios, boosting stable sectors like dividends and finance. Additionally, tighter year-end regulations could reinforce blue-chip dominance (e.g., restrictions on shell-resource speculation in late 2016 and the recent leverage-related risks in late 2023 to early 2024).
**Kaiyuan Securities**: Investors may consider positioning early for the "Spring Rally," focusing on a dual-driver strategy of technology and cyclical sectors. Key points include: 1. The rebound in technology and cyclical opportunities amid anti-internal competition trends. 2. Technology remains favorable for medium-to-long-term outperformance. 3. Some oversold growth sectors—such as defense, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong-listed internet stocks, and power equipment—show emerging opportunities. Core blue-chip tech stocks may also recover.
**Sector Allocation Recommendations**: - **Technology**: Defense, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong-listed internet stocks, batteries, and core AI hardware. - **Cyclicals**: Sectors benefiting from PPI improvements and anti-internal competition—photovoltaics, chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, power, and machinery. - **Long-term holdings**: Stable dividend stocks, gold, and optimized high-dividend plays.
**Orient Securities**: The mid-term trend remains consolidation, but TMT, upstream resources, AI chains, and aerospace-defense sectors warrant attention. The current market shows strong momentum for early positioning—driven by upcoming earnings season optimism in computing power and the global AI revolution. Short-term, the market is in a daily rebound phase, but the Shanghai Composite is likely to fluctuate between 3,850–3,950 this month.
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