Shenwan Hongyuan has released a research report announcing an upward revision to its profit forecast for J&T EXPRESS-W (01519) while maintaining an "Overweight" rating. The company's parcel volumes in both Southeast Asia and new markets for the fourth quarter exceeded expectations with rapid growth, prompting the firm to raise its profit estimates for J&T Express for 2025E-2027E. It now forecasts the company's adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 to be $387 million, $602 million, and $888 million respectively (compared to previous assumptions of $368 million, $592 million, and $853 million for 2025E-2027E), representing year-on-year growth of 93.01%, 55.69%, and 47.47%, corresponding to P/E ratios of 33x, 21x, and 15x.
The key points from Shenwan Hongyuan are as follows: Event: J&T Express released its operational data for the fourth quarter of 2025. The company's total parcel volume for the fourth quarter reached 8.461 billion pieces, a 14.5% year-on-year increase. Within this, parcel volume in Southeast Asia reached 2.436 billion pieces, surging 73.6% year-on-year; parcel volume in China reached 5.891 billion pieces, down 0.4% year-on-year; and parcel volume in new markets reached 134 million pieces, growing 79.7% year-on-year.
J&T continues to experience high growth in Southeast Asia, solidifying its leading industry position. The company's parcel volume in Southeast Asia maintained a high growth rate of 73.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025. For the full year 2025, its parcel volume in Southeast Asia reached 7.66 billion pieces, a substantial 67.8% year-on-year increase. This was primarily driven by e-commerce platforms in the region persistently increasing investments, enriching product categories through promotional activities, and fostering high traffic growth. Concurrently, J&T, leveraging its cost-efficiency advantages, has been able to meet the diverse needs of different e-commerce platforms, leading to a continuous increase in its market share. The firm is optimistic about J&T's ability to maintain its leading advantage and solidify its industry position in Southeast Asia.
The express delivery network in new markets is gradually being perfected, leading to accelerated business volume growth. The company's business volume in new markets reached 130 million pieces in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 79.7% year-on-year increase. The full-year business volume reached 404 million pieces, growing 43.6% year-on-year. This acceleration is mainly due to the gradual improvement of the company's delivery network, enabling it to handle more volume from e-commerce platforms. In 2025, the company established 9 new transfer centers, added 80 proprietary line-haul transport vehicles, and installed 9 new automated sorting lines in new markets, thereby enhancing operational efficiency and service quality.
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