Analysis of the latest gold market trends: On July 6, the gold market outlook was analyzed: During early European trading on Monday, spot gold was trading around $4,163 per ounce. Gold prices rose as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September declined, and uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Iran tensions persisted. A new round of U.S.-Iran talks is scheduled for July 11 in Pakistan. Spot gold rose 1.24% to $4,174.93 per ounce last Friday, reaching its highest level since June 23 and holding above the 21-day moving average. Influenced by the U.S. June non-farm payroll data, which fell significantly short of expectations (adding only 57,000 jobs versus an expected 110,000), market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September dropped from 66% to 54%. The U.S. dollar recorded its largest weekly decline since April, driving gold prices to a cumulative gain of over 2% last week after four consecutive weeks of losses.
Technical analysis of gold: Gold opened with strong consecutive gains, with short-term bullish momentum remaining robust. Gold surged again to $4,202 in early trading before experiencing a slight pullback. From a daily chart perspective, the rebound is ongoing, with clear resistance levels above. The daily rebound structure is intact, and the bullish trend remains unchanged. Key resistance levels to watch in early trading today are the daily acceleration line and the annual moving average. If the price effectively stabilizes above this range, the upside potential for the bullish trend will further expand. The MACD indicator formed a golden cross below the zero axis and is rising rapidly, with the red histogram continuing to expand, indicating strong bullish momentum. The RSI indicator has risen to around 65, remaining in a strong zone without entering overbought territory, suggesting further room for upside. However, the KDJ indicator shows signs of turning at high levels, and combined with the recent significant gains, a minor pullback for consolidation is possible within the day.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, the gold price is moving along the upper Bollinger Band, with the bands opening upward, confirming a clear bullish trend. The middle band at $4,155 serves as an important short-term support level. The price has been fluctuating repeatedly within the $4,175-$4,185 range, testing resistance levels multiple times, indicating that bullish forces are gradually absorbing profit-taking pressure. The MACD red histogram has shortened slightly, and the RSI has retreated from overbought territory, suggesting a slight weakening of short-term bullish momentum and raising awareness of potential pullback risks after rallies. The 1-hour chart better reflects intraday volatility, with gold prices consolidating narrowly within the $4,170-$4,190 range. Moving averages are converging, indicating intense battles between bulls and bears. The $4,160 level is the intraday pivot point for bullish and bearish strength. A break below this level could see support tested at $4,155-$4,145, while stabilization could lead to another upward attempt. As long as gold does not fall below $4,140, the 1-hour chart will continue to maintain a pattern of volatile upward movement. If the price breaks and stabilizes above $4,200, the upside potential for the bullish trend will further expand. The $4,200 psychological level serves as the intraday pivot point for short-term strength. If the price consistently holds above $4,200, the current upward structure remains intact, and bullish momentum can be sustainably released. If the price effectively breaks below $4,150, it would indicate a temporary weakening of short-term upward momentum, and the market may enter a phase of consolidation and corrective pullback. In summary, for gold's short-term trading strategy today, it is recommended to focus on buying on dips with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance levels to watch are around $4,200-$4,230, while key short-term support levels are around $4,130-$4,100.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends: On Monday, July 6 (Beijing time), during early European trading, U.S. crude oil was trading around $67.98 per barrel. It is anticipated that this round of U.S.-Iran talks will focus on three major issues: U.S. sanctions on Iran, Iran's frozen funds, and its nuclear program. However, reports suggest Iran is suspected of expanding secret nuclear facilities, adding to uncertainty. Oil prices closed higher last Friday, with Brent crude rising 0.54% to settle at $71.94 per barrel and U.S. crude gaining 0.47% to settle at $68.78 per barrel. Both benchmark contracts showed little change on a weekly basis, with the core driver being traders' cautious positioning ahead of the U.S.-Iran peace talks.
Technical analysis of crude oil: From a daily chart perspective, the moving average system is gradually diverging downward, indicating a medium-term objective trend shifting into a downtrend. Crude oil prices have broken below the lower support level of a more than three-month range, with bearish momentum strengthening. It is expected that the medium-term trend will primarily follow a downward rhythm. On the short-term (1-hour) chart, crude oil prices have been fluctuating with repeated movements. In early trading, prices fell, retesting the previous low near $67. Bearish momentum currently holds a slight advantage. It is anticipated that during the day, after testing support levels on the downside, crude oil prices are more likely to rebound after finding support. In summary, for crude oil's trading strategy today, it is recommended to focus on buying on dips with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance levels to watch are around $70.0-$71.0, while key short-term support levels are around $66.0-$65.0.
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