A recent projection indicates that the 2027 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for U.S. Social Security benefits may be increased further, following newly released government data showing significant inflation and a sharp rise in gasoline prices.
Based on the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Friday, independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson estimates that the 2027 COLA could reach 3.2%, influenced by surging gasoline prices. The March CPI report indicated that inflation has climbed to its highest level in nearly two years.
This forecast is higher than Johnson's March estimate of a 1.7% increase.
Beneficiaries of Social Security and Supplemental Security Income receive an annual COLA increase designed to ensure that inflation does not erode the purchasing power of their benefits.
Separately, the nonpartisan senior group The Senior Citizens League, using the latest inflation data, projects the 2027 COLA increase could be 2.8%, unchanged from its March prediction.
The U.S. Social Security Administration reported that approximately 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries received a 2.8% COLA for 2026. Starting in January, this resulted in an average increase of $56 per month for retired workers.
Data from the Social Security Administration shows the average COLA increase over the past decade has been 3.1%. However, following a sharp post-pandemic inflation spike, beneficiaries received record-high increases of 5.9% in 2022 and 8.7% in 2023, with the increases moderating in subsequent years.
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